Some chemical industry sub-sectors entered a new cycle

Affected by rising oil prices, energy-saving emission reductions, and increased corporate and social inventories, chemical products continued to increase in price over the past three months. Analysts believe that the chemical industry's economy has clearly rebounded, and although there is still some uncertainty in whether it will continue to rebound in the future, the sub-sectors such as potash fertilizer, phosphorus chemical industry, and polyester staple fiber have entered a new cycle of business cycle and are expected to last for a long time. Achieve more than 1 year.

The prices of chemical products have continued to rise in large areas since August.

According to data provided by China Chemical Network, the "high temperature" appeared in the chemical market in August. Of the 68 chemical products monitored in focus, 43 prices were rising, 13 were unchanged, accounting for 82.35% of the total; of the 20 types of rubber and plastic products monitored, prices rose by 17. There are two kinds of flat, accounting for 95% of the total.

The heat of the chemical market in September remained unabated. Of the 68 chemical products monitored in focus, 33 were price increases, 24 were flat, accounting for 83.8% of the total; of the 20 types of rubber and plastic products monitored, 15 were price increases. There are 3 kinds, and the total proportion is 90%.

Liu Xintian, editor-in-chief of the China Chemical Network Information Center, said that since October, chemical products have continued to rise in large areas and they have been able to get rid of the downturn in May and June. Comparing the prices on October 15 with those on August 2, there are 57 kinds of 68 kinds of chemical products that are monitored and monitored, and there are 4 types of flat products, accounting for 89.7% of the total; Among the rubber and plastic products, there are 18 kinds of price increases, and 1 type of flat products, accounting for 95% of the total.

From the situation in the past three months, products with price increases of more than 20% have **, **, epichlorohydrin, stearic acid, **, bisphenol A, cyclohexanone, n-butanol, soda ash, Caustic soda, ethylene glycol, butadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber, natural rubber and so on. Among them, ** took the top spot with an increase of 43.33%.

Compared with the beginning of the year, the price on October 15 increased by more than 30% with hydrofluoric acid, HFC, bisphenol A, tetrabromobisphenol A, fluorspar powder, **, stearic acid, **, ethylene glycol. , Hexafluoropropylene, Industrial Naphthalene, Polysilicon, PTA, PMMA, PET, SBR, etc. Among them, hydrofluoric acid ranks the top spot with an increase of 84%.

Industry data shows that the price of individual products is still close to or hit a record high, including phosphate rock, ABS plastic, PTA, natural rubber, **, BDO and so on.

Taking ** as an example, in the first half of 2010, the global market and bromine chemical products, driven by both cost and demand, have soared. **The price was 16800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, 18,000 yuan/ton at the end of February, 18500 yuan/ton at the beginning of March, 22,000 yuan/ton in the middle of August, and it was already at the high price of 23,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of September, and the price was even higher in recent days. A record high, the market mainstream quoted at 25,000 yuan / ton, while the ** medium and long-term electronic trading prices once again soared to 25,300 yuan / ton, from the year to date, the price increase of 48.8%, compared with the same period last year, The increase was as high as 72.41%.

At the second China bromine industrial chain development summit forum held on October 21st, China Chemical Network analysts said that in the long run, ** is the national strategic reserve resource, and the rapid development of bromine chemical industry will surely increase the number of * The demand, ** prices are still upward trend, related manufacturers such as Shandong Haihua will benefit. However, there is a certain downward pressure on prices in the short term.

The reason why the three major promoters raised the price of chemical products is that Pacific Securities researcher Yao Xin believes that it can be understood from the two main lines of rising oil prices and energy-saving and emission reduction. The former leads to rising costs and stimulates the price increase of downstream chemical products. Due to shutting down part of the production capacity during the implementation, the supply decreased.

Since the beginning of this year, international crude oil has maintained its range of fluctuations and the shock range is between 69-89 US dollars per barrel. Despite the oversupply of crude oil, it did not support the international crude oil to rise sharply. But after entering October, crude oil ** was boosted by the depreciation of the US dollar and once rose to US$83/barrel.

China Chemical Network analysts said that from historical data in recent years, crude oil will generally experience a wave of upswing from October to January of the following year because the northern hemisphere enters the winter and the demand for heating oil increases. The enthusiasm of oil refineries in refineries rose, and demand for crude oil increased. However, there was no corresponding increase in crude oil supply. It is expected that there will be a high possibility that international crude oil will fluctuate in the next three months, and the main shock range will be raised to between 75-90 US dollars/barrel.

Zhu Wei, deputy director of the Information and Marketing Department of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, stated that under normal circumstances, as long as the oil price exceeds 80 US dollars/barrel, it will be able to stimulate the price of chemicals significantly. Liu Xintian said that the rise in oil prices has a direct impact on organic chemicals and has an indirect impact on inorganic chemicals.

In the process of energy-saving and emission-reduction, due to the rigid rigidity of the policies, local governments must complete the situation, and forced closure of production capacity has occurred in some places, which has also spread to the chemical industry. Li Yongwu, president of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, revealed that in an investigation in Anhui Province, it was found that in order to complete the task of energy conservation and emission reduction, some chemical production capacity did not distinguish between advanced and backward, and all were forced to shut down. Analysts said that the typical products that are affected by energy conservation and emission reductions include nitrogen fertilizers, phosphoric acid, soda ash, calcium carbide, PVC, and other major chemical products.

Zhu also proposed that the more critical reason for the rise in prices of chemical products is that product prices have fallen to a point where it is difficult to continue falling, and the most keen traders in the market saw this, and began to increase their inventory and drive up prices, thereby driving downstream companies. Restocking and pushing prices further rose.

Before this, the market was unanimously worried that overcapacity would suppress product prices and the market conditions continued to be sluggish. However, “no one would do a loss-making business,” and the operating rate of chemical companies dropped, thereby reversing the supply and demand pattern of the industry.

Analysts believe that traders have played a role in boosting prices of chemical products. When prices rise, they can drive further price increases. Conversely, when prices fall, traders will also play a role in helping the market fall. . Liu Xintian said that traders are optimistic about the economic outlook next year, so they dare to take delivery.

Concern that some sub-sectors have continued to rise for nearly three months, the industry is not clear about the next price trend of chemical products. Zhu Hao believes that from the current situation, chemical prices may also fluctuate upward in the short term. Another analyst pointed out that next year the situation of energy saving and emission reduction will not be as intense as this year, the shutting down of production capacity is likely to return to work, leading to production capacity "blowout" and suppress product prices.

A chemical industry analyst said that despite the current clear upward trend in the chemical industry, but taking into account the possible risks in the future, investors should focus on sub-sectors that have clearly entered the big boom cycle, such as potash fertilizer, phosphate rock, and polyester staple fiber. These industries are divided into two categories, one of which is itself a resource product, and the other is an alternative resource. The duration of the boom is expected to reach more than 1 year.

Analysts believe that next year's potash industry may usher in a "big year." The farmland can be reused for two years after applying a potash fertilizer. Potash fertilizer demand in 2009 and 2010 was not very strong. Therefore, it is very likely that the demand for potash fertilizer will peak next year. Considering the inflation factor, the price of potash fertilizer may increase by another 20% on the current basis. The current price of phosphate rock has increased by 20% compared with the beginning of the year. Besides being affected by inflation factors, it is also attributed to the country’s restrictions on the mining of phosphate rock, and related companies that own phosphate rock resources such as Xingfa Group will benefit from the price. Further rise.

Because polyester staple fiber can replace cotton, the price fully benefits from the rise of cotton. An industry analyst said that polyester staple fiber has been “bad” for many years. Now that it is getting better, it will wait until a lot of new capacity is built and put into production before another decline in industry efficiency will occur. Related listed companies such as Huaxi Village and Xiake Environmental Protection can pay attention.