Since 2010, with the gradual recovery of the global economy from the economic crisis of 2008 and the rapid economic recovery and development of China, both the international coal market and the domestic coal market have been thriving. Coal production and sales increased significantly, and coal prices also rose rapidly. However, while the coal industry has maintained a good momentum of development, the major coal-producing provinces in China have also started the coal reform work for the integration of coal resources in the province. At the same time, the “consumption of market coal and electricity†and the huge pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction have always With the development of the coal industry, that is to say, while the coal industry has achieved great development, there are still many problems to be solved. Below, we will analyze the overall operation of the coal industry in 2010 and the development trend in 2011.
First, the coal industry achieved great development in 2010 After experiencing the global economic crisis in 2008, both China's and international coal prices fell from the high point of mid-2008 to the bottom. However, in 2009, China took the lead from the impact of the economic crisis. Going out, the national economy has also achieved recovery development. Domestic coal prices have risen rapidly and once exceeded the price of foreign coal. Due to the low international coal prices in 2009, China’s coal imports have increased significantly. In 2009, China officially changed from a net coal exporter to a net coal importer, and driven by strong demand in China, the international coal market is particularly It is the Asia-Pacific coal market that has gradually emerged from the impact of the economic crisis. Then, the development momentum of China's coal industry remained strong in 2010, and the coal industry has also achieved considerable development in the past year.
(I) Domestic demand for coal remains strong Although it was affected by the global economic crisis in 2008, China's coal consumption in 2009 still showed a low and high market. According to the data released by the China Coal Industry Association, China's coal sales totaled 2,832.3 million tons in 2009, an increase of 8.25% compared to the same period of last year. It can be said that by the end of 2009, China's coal industry has basically shaken off the impact of the global economic crisis in 2008. . In 2010, China’s domestic coal demand continued to maintain a relatively high growth rate. From January to October, the country’s cumulative sales of coal reached 2,692.918 million tons, an increase of 19.3% compared to the same period in 2009, of which the single month’s monthly sales of coal were 309.755 million tons, which was comparable to 2009. The growth rate was 19.8% over the same period, creating the highest single-month sales since 2010. According to the current situation of the coal market, the total coal sales in the coal industry in 2010 exceeded 3 billion tons. It is almost a foregone conclusion. We forecast that the total coal sales in 2010 will reach about 3.2 billion tons, which is higher than that in 2009. The increase was above 13%. The major reason for the sharp increase in domestic coal demand in 2010 is that the rapid recovery of economic construction has led to a substantial increase in the demand for electricity and other energy sources, which has led to a significant increase in coal demand.
(II) Sharp rise in coal prices After experiencing the global economic crisis in 2008, the international economic environment continued to deteriorate, the economic growth rate slowed down and even reversed. The demand for energy products on the global scale drastically decreased, and various energy products including oil were included. The price dropped to the bottom. The proportion of coal in the global energy structure is not high at the same time. At the same time, as an alternative to petroleum, coal prices have also dropped sharply. International coal prices have fallen from the high point of nearly US$200/tonne in 2008 to about US$40/tonne. In 2009, the lowest price of domestic 5,000 kcal thermal coal in the Qinhuangdao port fell below 400 yuan/ton, and the coal industry entered an extremely difficult period. With the recovery of China's economy, domestic coal prices also took the lead from recovery after 2008. Since the second half of 2009, domestic coal prices have begun to recover, and by the beginning of 2010, domestic coal prices have risen. The level of early 2008. After entering 2010, the domestic thermal coal price continued to rise. In April and May of 2010 and from the end of September to the end of November, there were two rounds of rising prices, and the domestic price of 5,000 kcal thermal coal was already at the station. Stable 700 yuan/ton mark.
(3) The rapid growth of coal production and the sharp decline in domestic coal prices after the 2008 economic crisis were different, the domestic coal output did not fall back due to the impact of the economic crisis. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2009, the national Accumulated production of 2.96 billion tons of raw coal, an increase of 12.69% year on year, is the fastest year since 2005. In 2010, with the completion of Shanxi Coal Reform, coal production capacity in Shanxi Province recovered rapidly, and coal production also grew rapidly. It contributed greatly to the substantial increase in the output of raw coal in China. According to relevant statistics, from January to July in 2010, the The output of raw coal was 1.869 billion tons, an increase of 18.43% over the same period of last year. Although this is only the data for the first half of the year, the rapid growth of coal production in China can be clearly seen, and the growth rate of domestic coal production in 2010 will be significantly higher than in 2009. Based on raw coal production data from various provinces and cities, we speculate that the conservative estimate for domestic coal production in 2010 should be around 3.2 billion tons. This output has far surpassed our original coal output target set at the beginning of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period.
(IV) The increase in coal import volume is relatively clear Finally, in 2010, China's coal industry also continued the rapid growth of raw coal imports in 2009. In 2009, China’s coal imports reached 126 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 211.9%. The major reason for the significant increase in raw coal imports in 2009 was the rapid recovery of domestic coal prices, while the slow recovery of international coal prices, and the large number of domestic coal-consuming enterprises importing internationally. Coal, resulting in a substantial increase in China's coal imports. After entering 2010, although international coal prices have gradually recovered, but China's coal imports have not declined, but on the contrary, they have risen further. According to the statistics released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, in the first 10 months of 2010, China's cumulative import of coal was 133.93 million tons, an increase of 38.4% year-on-year. The coal import volume in 2010 will exceed 150 million tons, and the world's second-largest coal import. The status of the country has been further consolidated, and for some time in the future China's coal imports will continue to maintain a growth trend, and may even replace Japan as the world’s largest importer of coal. The domestic coal industry did not reduce coal imports when international coal prices gradually recovered, mainly because a large amount of imported international coal has become the norm in the industry. At the same time, imported coal can also ensure the diversification of coal sources by coal-consuming enterprises and increase coal consumption. The bargaining chip between enterprises and coal companies.
Second, many new features emerged in the coal industry in 2010. Of course, in addition to the huge achievements made in previous years in China's coal industry in 2010, a number of new phenomena and features have also emerged, and these characteristics are likely to be It will become the norm of China's coal industry or a turning point in the development of the coal industry. Some of these characteristics are due to the special nature of the coal industry and the evolution of the industry over many years of operation. There are also some problems arising from the long-term development of the coal industry that need to be addressed centrally, or the current economy. Under the system, some intensified contradictions need to be solved and temporary solutions emerge. All in all, these characteristics may have been shown in previous years, but in 2010 these characteristics have been developed in a concentrated manner and will become trends.
(I) The merger and reorganization of coal enterprises has become an industry trend In 2010, the coal reform work in Shanxi Province has basically entered the final stage, but the nationwide coal industry merger and reorganization work kicked off, first announced in March 2010 in Henan Province. Started the merger and reorganization of the coal industry in the province, and completed the merger and reorganization of small and medium-sized coal mines in the province in less than half a year. Subsequently, Shandong Province, Guizhou Province, Shaanxi Province, and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region have all started the merger and reorganization of the coal industry in the province. Although some provinces have not issued detailed coal industry mergers and reorganization plans, they have stated that they will increase. Support for coal reform work has accelerated the elimination of outdated small coal mines. While the major coal-producing provinces vigorously promoted the merger and reorganization of the coal industry, the relevant departments of the central government also paid attention to the problems existing in the integration process of the coal industry. For example, the integration of the coal industry is very strong in the region and industry, and is therefore proposed in the future. In the process of integration of the coal industry, cross-regional, cross-industry, and cross-ownership mergers and reorganizations are encouraged. Therefore, the promotion of merger and reorganization of coal companies, increase of coal industry concentration, and integration development of the coal industry and other industries will become the coal industry of China. development trend.
(2) The traditional coal consumption peak season has been advanced in 2010. The coal industry is a cyclical industry with strong cyclicity. Its cyclical performance is mainly reflected in the obvious consumption peak season and off-season consumption period in the industry. In the peak season, coal consumption will be substantially increased. Rising, leading to tighter supply and demand of coal, and in the off-season consumption, coal demand decreased, coal supply and demand tend to loose. China's coal industry mainly has two peak seasons for consumption: one is the peak season for summer consumption, and the other is the peak season for winter consumption. At other times, it is basically the low season for consumption. Then in 2010, China’s coal industry showed an obvious feature: “the off-season is not faded, and the busy season is not prosperousâ€. The so-called off-season is not thin: in April, May and October of 2010, the domestic coal industry did not appear. Demand has reduced the decline in coal prices. In the peak season of coal consumption in July and August, domestic coal prices have not risen sharply and have even experienced a slight drop. According to the operating experience of the coal industry in China, this situation is mainly due to the fact that domestic coal-consuming enterprises have tightened Yancoal before the arrival of the coal season, which has caused part of the demand for the peak season to shift to the off-season, and then coal prices have started to rise in the off-season, while coal prices have risen. The off-season has already risen, so the incentive for coal prices to rise after the peak season is not strong.
(III) The coal and electricity integration and other development models have become a new direction for the development of the industry. Another feature of China's coal industry in 2010 was the acceleration of coal-electricity integration. In fact, coal-electricity integration is not a new thing that only emerged in 2010. The phenomenon that existed a few years ago. The main reason is that with the advancement of market-oriented reforms in the coal industry, coal prices in China have been rising. Under such circumstances, domestic electricity prices have not been adjusted synchronously, but the pace of regulatory adjustments by the National Development and Reform Commission has been relatively slow. The rapid rise in coal prices and the limited increase in electricity prices have resulted in the continuous deterioration of the operating environment of domestic thermal power companies. The coal-fired linkage mechanism to solve the thermal power companies’ rise in operating costs due to rising coal prices has been difficult to operate for some time. Stuck into a state of strandedness, domestic power companies continue to fall into a loss situation. In order to temporarily solve the problem of difficulties in the operation of domestic electric power companies, the government proposed to support domestic electric power companies to enter the coal field, accelerate the integration of coal and electricity, and reduce the operating pressure of electric power companies by increasing the coal self-sufficiency rate of electric power companies. Then, in the case of a sharp increase in domestic coal prices in 2010, accelerating the integration of coal and electricity has become the best choice for major power companies.
III. Problems in the development process of the coal industry in 2010 Although it was mentioned earlier that the coal industry has made great achievements in 2010, it has also achieved a lot of development. However, there are also many problems in the process of development. Among these problems, some are chronic diseases that have existed in the coal industry in China for a long time. At present, no effective solution has been found, and some have emerged in recent years. The situation and new issues, some of which are currently being solved, have not yet been completely resolved. In general, these problems in the coal industry affect the healthy and steady development of China's coal industry, and also affect the development of industries that are closely linked to the coal industry. Therefore, in the future, these problems will be an urgent problem for the coal industry to solve. It is an unavoidable problem in the development of the coal industry during 2011 and even during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.
(1) The contradiction between “market coal and planned electricity†still plagues the “market coal and planned electricity†of the coal industry. This is a problem that has always existed in China's coal industry since the reform of marketization, as the reform of the marketization of the coal industry in China is not thorough. At present, the coal industry actually implements a "dual track system" in which part of the coal is sold through the market, while another part of coal is sold in the form of contract coal. Although the contract coal is determined by both sides of the coal-fired power company, the price of the contract coal is much lower than the coal price of the market, mainly because of the factors of administrative intervention. The fundamental reason for this is because in the process of coal market reform, the power industry has not simultaneously implemented market-oriented reforms, and China's power industry is mainly composed of thermal power, and coal costs in thermal power enterprises also occupy operating costs. The vast majority. Therefore, if the coal industry is completely market-oriented, then thermal power companies are bound to be difficult to survive. To solve this problem, the state will continue the form of planned coal and change it to the form of contract coal. It is precisely because of the existence of the “dual track system†in the coal industry and the fact that the on-grid tariff is controlled by the state, the contradiction between the coal-fired power industry is becoming increasingly fierce. This contradiction is often easier to intensify in the case of a sharp increase in the market price of coal, which is exactly the case in 2010.
(2) The transport capacity problem is still the bottleneck restricting the development of the coal industry. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, China’s coal production has increased significantly. With the increase of coal production, the demand for coal transport capacity is also rising. China's domestic coal area and coal consumption place are far away from each other in terms of geographical location, so coal transportation capacity has always been one of the obstacles to the development of China's coal industry. In 2010, the coal transportation volume of the Daqin Railway, the main passage of West-East Coal Transportation in China, has exceeded 400 million tons. Through technological transformation, the current annual transportation volume is four times that of the original Daqin Railway design capacity, and the capacity of the Daqin Railway has been increased. Almost played to the extreme. However, with the gradual shift of the focus of coal production in China, the requirements for coal transportation capacity are increasing, and at present, the construction of China's coal transportation capacity is obviously unable to keep up with the growth rate of coal production. The reality is that in recent years, due to the limited access to the province, each province’s access roads in Shaanxi Province have been congested by coal-carrying vehicles at the peak of coal transportation. In 2010, due to the increase in coal shipments from Inner Mongolia and Gansu, the railway transportation capacity was unable to keep pace, and the use of road transport resulted in large traffic jams on the Beijing-Tibet Highway. The problem still severely restricts the development of China's coal industry.
(III) Problems Concerning Coal Safety Production The safety issue is still a problem that has always existed in the coal industry in China, and the problem of safe production in the coal industry in China is very serious. Since 2010, mine accidents in various parts of our country have occurred from time to time, and coal mine safety production seems to have occurred. It has not been effectively improved. Coal mine disasters have extremely bad influence on the country, society, enterprises and the public. The relevant state departments also attach great importance to the safety production of coal mines. However, despite the relentless demands of the relevant national departments to pay attention to the issue of coal mine safety production, the situation of coal mine disasters is basically no sign of improvement, that is, after the country requires leaders to accompany them, coal mine disaster still occurs. To a certain extent, the fundamental cause of the coal mine disaster is the lack of awareness of safe production of the company. The lack of awareness of safety production has led to insufficient investment in safe production, and finally resulted in frequent mine accidents. Therefore, in order to reduce the frequency of occurrence of mine disasters in the future, we must earnestly raise awareness of safe production in enterprises and increase investment in safe production.
(D) The coal reform work needs to be further improved. The last point is the problem of coal reform. At the beginning of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the state proposed to rectify the coal industry in China. In 2009, Shanxi Province took the lead in Coal reforms have been initiated across the province, and great achievements have been made, providing models for other coal-producing provinces in China. Subsequently, Henan, Shandong and other places also opened the prelude to the province's coal reform work. Although the provincial coal reforms have largely shut down the small coal mines in the province, the concentration of the coal industry has increased. However, there are also many problems in the entire coal reform process. First of all, the government dominance of coal reform is quite obvious, and the government-led coal reform work will inevitably have many market problems. This is a place that needs further improvement; secondly, in the coal reform work around the region, regional limitations, The limitations of the industry are quite obvious, which means that the merger and reorganization of the coal industry in various regions is basically limited to the scope of the province, and the industry is basically confined to the coal industry itself. According to the spirit of the State Council, mergers and acquisitions in China's coal industry should move towards cross-industry. , cross-regional, cross-ownership direction.
IV. Outlook for the Coal Industry in 2011 The above is a summary of the general situation of the coal industry in 2010. Due to the economic crisis in 2008, the coal industry was also seriously injured. In 2010, the coal industry can be said to have recovered to a greater extent. Regardless of the output, the consumption, or the market coal price, the coal industry has a recovery atmosphere. Next, we will look forward to the performance of the coal industry in 2011. In general, 2011 will be a year full of development opportunities for the coal industry. In 2011, China's economic construction will advance steadily, and domestic demand will continue to increase, thus stimulating the development of the coal industry. In addition, 2011 is also the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†construction. Many projects will start construction in 2011. This is also a big plus for the coal industry. The following will analyze the development trend of the coal industry in 2011 from specific aspects.
(I) The coal industry will continue to have high demand and high output in 2011. China's raw coal production will grow at a faster rate in 2010. It is conservatively estimated that the production of raw coal in 2010 will be above 3.2 billion tons, which is 2.96 billion tons of raw coal compared to 2009. The output also increased by more than 10%. In addition to the rapid increase in raw coal production in 2010, the coal demand in 2010 also increased significantly. This can be confirmed by the changes in China’s coal import and export volume. In 2010, China’s coal imports continued to rise sharply, while coal Exports still maintain a downward trend. Therefore, China’s coal demand is still growing. According to China's coal development plan, the focus of coal production during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period will continue to shift westwards, and thus the coal production in the western region will also continue to increase. After Shanxi Province undergoes coal reform, coal production will be further improved. Ascension, so that China's coal production in 2011 will continue to maintain growth. The growth in coal demand is mainly due to economic growth. In 2011, China’s economy will continue to grow and the economic growth rate may slow down, but the upward trend of economic development will not change. Second, 2011 is “ In the first year of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, all projects will start in succession in 2011, which will also increase China's coal demand.
(II) Coal prices will remain high in 2011. Coal price will rise. In 2010, China’s coal price rose significantly. The coal price in the whole year has two waves of rising prices. The first wave is summer coal consumption in China in April and May. Before the onset of the peak, coal prices rose rapidly, and then fell slightly. The second wave started from the end of September to the present, and the coal price rose again, almost equaling the coal price level at the beginning of 2008. We predict that the market coal price will continue to rise in 2011. First of all, in 2010, the National Development and Reform Commission imposed stringent restrictions on the contract coal price in 2011. As a result, the coal price in the market cannot be raised if the contract coal price cannot be raised. It is bound to become the only direction for coal companies to increase their profitability. Second, according to the current trend of international coal prices, international coal prices are likely to remain high or continue to surge in 2011, while China’s coal market is significantly larger than China’s coal imports. Rising, and the world coal market is also increasingly close, so that in 2011 China's coal market prices will remain at a high level of operation, the decline is less likely.
(3) The merger and reorganization of the coal industry will continue throughout the year to be the merger and reorganization of the coal industry. According to the spirit of the meeting of the State Council and the relevant notice of the National Development and Reform Commission, the national government supports the merger and reorganization of the coal industry in China, and thus coal Industry mergers and reorganization will continue to advance. The focus of the merger and reorganization of the coal industry in China will be to promote cross-industry, cross-regional, cross-ownership mergers and restructuring movement. The so-called cross-industry is to realize the integrated development of coal, electricity, coking, and metallurgical industries. At present, China has achieved certain achievements in the integration of coal and electricity. Under the advocacy of the relevant state departments, cross-industry between the future The merger and reorganization of coal enterprises will be more frequent; then the so-called cross-region is established in response to the current regionalization of coal reform is too strong, in the future, regional barriers will be gradually eliminated, the ability of powerful coal companies will They will be given equal opportunities to participate in the merger and reorganization of the coal industry; and the so-called cross-ownership system is proposed in response to the current misgivings about coal advancement and reorganization, and supports and encourages private capital to participate in our country. Coal industry mergers and acquisitions go.
The above is our analysis of the overall operation of the coal industry in 2010 and the prospects for the development of the coal industry in 2011. We believe that under the new development plan, China’s coal industry will achieve even more remarkable results and will also be for investors. We create more investment opportunities. The prospects for the development of the coal industry in 2011 can be said to be very promising and very promising.
First, the coal industry achieved great development in 2010 After experiencing the global economic crisis in 2008, both China's and international coal prices fell from the high point of mid-2008 to the bottom. However, in 2009, China took the lead from the impact of the economic crisis. Going out, the national economy has also achieved recovery development. Domestic coal prices have risen rapidly and once exceeded the price of foreign coal. Due to the low international coal prices in 2009, China’s coal imports have increased significantly. In 2009, China officially changed from a net coal exporter to a net coal importer, and driven by strong demand in China, the international coal market is particularly It is the Asia-Pacific coal market that has gradually emerged from the impact of the economic crisis. Then, the development momentum of China's coal industry remained strong in 2010, and the coal industry has also achieved considerable development in the past year.
(I) Domestic demand for coal remains strong Although it was affected by the global economic crisis in 2008, China's coal consumption in 2009 still showed a low and high market. According to the data released by the China Coal Industry Association, China's coal sales totaled 2,832.3 million tons in 2009, an increase of 8.25% compared to the same period of last year. It can be said that by the end of 2009, China's coal industry has basically shaken off the impact of the global economic crisis in 2008. . In 2010, China’s domestic coal demand continued to maintain a relatively high growth rate. From January to October, the country’s cumulative sales of coal reached 2,692.918 million tons, an increase of 19.3% compared to the same period in 2009, of which the single month’s monthly sales of coal were 309.755 million tons, which was comparable to 2009. The growth rate was 19.8% over the same period, creating the highest single-month sales since 2010. According to the current situation of the coal market, the total coal sales in the coal industry in 2010 exceeded 3 billion tons. It is almost a foregone conclusion. We forecast that the total coal sales in 2010 will reach about 3.2 billion tons, which is higher than that in 2009. The increase was above 13%. The major reason for the sharp increase in domestic coal demand in 2010 is that the rapid recovery of economic construction has led to a substantial increase in the demand for electricity and other energy sources, which has led to a significant increase in coal demand.
(II) Sharp rise in coal prices After experiencing the global economic crisis in 2008, the international economic environment continued to deteriorate, the economic growth rate slowed down and even reversed. The demand for energy products on the global scale drastically decreased, and various energy products including oil were included. The price dropped to the bottom. The proportion of coal in the global energy structure is not high at the same time. At the same time, as an alternative to petroleum, coal prices have also dropped sharply. International coal prices have fallen from the high point of nearly US$200/tonne in 2008 to about US$40/tonne. In 2009, the lowest price of domestic 5,000 kcal thermal coal in the Qinhuangdao port fell below 400 yuan/ton, and the coal industry entered an extremely difficult period. With the recovery of China's economy, domestic coal prices also took the lead from recovery after 2008. Since the second half of 2009, domestic coal prices have begun to recover, and by the beginning of 2010, domestic coal prices have risen. The level of early 2008. After entering 2010, the domestic thermal coal price continued to rise. In April and May of 2010 and from the end of September to the end of November, there were two rounds of rising prices, and the domestic price of 5,000 kcal thermal coal was already at the station. Stable 700 yuan/ton mark.
(3) The rapid growth of coal production and the sharp decline in domestic coal prices after the 2008 economic crisis were different, the domestic coal output did not fall back due to the impact of the economic crisis. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2009, the national Accumulated production of 2.96 billion tons of raw coal, an increase of 12.69% year on year, is the fastest year since 2005. In 2010, with the completion of Shanxi Coal Reform, coal production capacity in Shanxi Province recovered rapidly, and coal production also grew rapidly. It contributed greatly to the substantial increase in the output of raw coal in China. According to relevant statistics, from January to July in 2010, the The output of raw coal was 1.869 billion tons, an increase of 18.43% over the same period of last year. Although this is only the data for the first half of the year, the rapid growth of coal production in China can be clearly seen, and the growth rate of domestic coal production in 2010 will be significantly higher than in 2009. Based on raw coal production data from various provinces and cities, we speculate that the conservative estimate for domestic coal production in 2010 should be around 3.2 billion tons. This output has far surpassed our original coal output target set at the beginning of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period.
(IV) The increase in coal import volume is relatively clear Finally, in 2010, China's coal industry also continued the rapid growth of raw coal imports in 2009. In 2009, China’s coal imports reached 126 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 211.9%. The major reason for the significant increase in raw coal imports in 2009 was the rapid recovery of domestic coal prices, while the slow recovery of international coal prices, and the large number of domestic coal-consuming enterprises importing internationally. Coal, resulting in a substantial increase in China's coal imports. After entering 2010, although international coal prices have gradually recovered, but China's coal imports have not declined, but on the contrary, they have risen further. According to the statistics released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, in the first 10 months of 2010, China's cumulative import of coal was 133.93 million tons, an increase of 38.4% year-on-year. The coal import volume in 2010 will exceed 150 million tons, and the world's second-largest coal import. The status of the country has been further consolidated, and for some time in the future China's coal imports will continue to maintain a growth trend, and may even replace Japan as the world’s largest importer of coal. The domestic coal industry did not reduce coal imports when international coal prices gradually recovered, mainly because a large amount of imported international coal has become the norm in the industry. At the same time, imported coal can also ensure the diversification of coal sources by coal-consuming enterprises and increase coal consumption. The bargaining chip between enterprises and coal companies.
Second, many new features emerged in the coal industry in 2010. Of course, in addition to the huge achievements made in previous years in China's coal industry in 2010, a number of new phenomena and features have also emerged, and these characteristics are likely to be It will become the norm of China's coal industry or a turning point in the development of the coal industry. Some of these characteristics are due to the special nature of the coal industry and the evolution of the industry over many years of operation. There are also some problems arising from the long-term development of the coal industry that need to be addressed centrally, or the current economy. Under the system, some intensified contradictions need to be solved and temporary solutions emerge. All in all, these characteristics may have been shown in previous years, but in 2010 these characteristics have been developed in a concentrated manner and will become trends.
(I) The merger and reorganization of coal enterprises has become an industry trend In 2010, the coal reform work in Shanxi Province has basically entered the final stage, but the nationwide coal industry merger and reorganization work kicked off, first announced in March 2010 in Henan Province. Started the merger and reorganization of the coal industry in the province, and completed the merger and reorganization of small and medium-sized coal mines in the province in less than half a year. Subsequently, Shandong Province, Guizhou Province, Shaanxi Province, and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region have all started the merger and reorganization of the coal industry in the province. Although some provinces have not issued detailed coal industry mergers and reorganization plans, they have stated that they will increase. Support for coal reform work has accelerated the elimination of outdated small coal mines. While the major coal-producing provinces vigorously promoted the merger and reorganization of the coal industry, the relevant departments of the central government also paid attention to the problems existing in the integration process of the coal industry. For example, the integration of the coal industry is very strong in the region and industry, and is therefore proposed in the future. In the process of integration of the coal industry, cross-regional, cross-industry, and cross-ownership mergers and reorganizations are encouraged. Therefore, the promotion of merger and reorganization of coal companies, increase of coal industry concentration, and integration development of the coal industry and other industries will become the coal industry of China. development trend.
(2) The traditional coal consumption peak season has been advanced in 2010. The coal industry is a cyclical industry with strong cyclicity. Its cyclical performance is mainly reflected in the obvious consumption peak season and off-season consumption period in the industry. In the peak season, coal consumption will be substantially increased. Rising, leading to tighter supply and demand of coal, and in the off-season consumption, coal demand decreased, coal supply and demand tend to loose. China's coal industry mainly has two peak seasons for consumption: one is the peak season for summer consumption, and the other is the peak season for winter consumption. At other times, it is basically the low season for consumption. Then in 2010, China’s coal industry showed an obvious feature: “the off-season is not faded, and the busy season is not prosperousâ€. The so-called off-season is not thin: in April, May and October of 2010, the domestic coal industry did not appear. Demand has reduced the decline in coal prices. In the peak season of coal consumption in July and August, domestic coal prices have not risen sharply and have even experienced a slight drop. According to the operating experience of the coal industry in China, this situation is mainly due to the fact that domestic coal-consuming enterprises have tightened Yancoal before the arrival of the coal season, which has caused part of the demand for the peak season to shift to the off-season, and then coal prices have started to rise in the off-season, while coal prices have risen. The off-season has already risen, so the incentive for coal prices to rise after the peak season is not strong.
(III) The coal and electricity integration and other development models have become a new direction for the development of the industry. Another feature of China's coal industry in 2010 was the acceleration of coal-electricity integration. In fact, coal-electricity integration is not a new thing that only emerged in 2010. The phenomenon that existed a few years ago. The main reason is that with the advancement of market-oriented reforms in the coal industry, coal prices in China have been rising. Under such circumstances, domestic electricity prices have not been adjusted synchronously, but the pace of regulatory adjustments by the National Development and Reform Commission has been relatively slow. The rapid rise in coal prices and the limited increase in electricity prices have resulted in the continuous deterioration of the operating environment of domestic thermal power companies. The coal-fired linkage mechanism to solve the thermal power companies’ rise in operating costs due to rising coal prices has been difficult to operate for some time. Stuck into a state of strandedness, domestic power companies continue to fall into a loss situation. In order to temporarily solve the problem of difficulties in the operation of domestic electric power companies, the government proposed to support domestic electric power companies to enter the coal field, accelerate the integration of coal and electricity, and reduce the operating pressure of electric power companies by increasing the coal self-sufficiency rate of electric power companies. Then, in the case of a sharp increase in domestic coal prices in 2010, accelerating the integration of coal and electricity has become the best choice for major power companies.
III. Problems in the development process of the coal industry in 2010 Although it was mentioned earlier that the coal industry has made great achievements in 2010, it has also achieved a lot of development. However, there are also many problems in the process of development. Among these problems, some are chronic diseases that have existed in the coal industry in China for a long time. At present, no effective solution has been found, and some have emerged in recent years. The situation and new issues, some of which are currently being solved, have not yet been completely resolved. In general, these problems in the coal industry affect the healthy and steady development of China's coal industry, and also affect the development of industries that are closely linked to the coal industry. Therefore, in the future, these problems will be an urgent problem for the coal industry to solve. It is an unavoidable problem in the development of the coal industry during 2011 and even during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.
(1) The contradiction between “market coal and planned electricity†still plagues the “market coal and planned electricity†of the coal industry. This is a problem that has always existed in China's coal industry since the reform of marketization, as the reform of the marketization of the coal industry in China is not thorough. At present, the coal industry actually implements a "dual track system" in which part of the coal is sold through the market, while another part of coal is sold in the form of contract coal. Although the contract coal is determined by both sides of the coal-fired power company, the price of the contract coal is much lower than the coal price of the market, mainly because of the factors of administrative intervention. The fundamental reason for this is because in the process of coal market reform, the power industry has not simultaneously implemented market-oriented reforms, and China's power industry is mainly composed of thermal power, and coal costs in thermal power enterprises also occupy operating costs. The vast majority. Therefore, if the coal industry is completely market-oriented, then thermal power companies are bound to be difficult to survive. To solve this problem, the state will continue the form of planned coal and change it to the form of contract coal. It is precisely because of the existence of the “dual track system†in the coal industry and the fact that the on-grid tariff is controlled by the state, the contradiction between the coal-fired power industry is becoming increasingly fierce. This contradiction is often easier to intensify in the case of a sharp increase in the market price of coal, which is exactly the case in 2010.
(2) The transport capacity problem is still the bottleneck restricting the development of the coal industry. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, China’s coal production has increased significantly. With the increase of coal production, the demand for coal transport capacity is also rising. China's domestic coal area and coal consumption place are far away from each other in terms of geographical location, so coal transportation capacity has always been one of the obstacles to the development of China's coal industry. In 2010, the coal transportation volume of the Daqin Railway, the main passage of West-East Coal Transportation in China, has exceeded 400 million tons. Through technological transformation, the current annual transportation volume is four times that of the original Daqin Railway design capacity, and the capacity of the Daqin Railway has been increased. Almost played to the extreme. However, with the gradual shift of the focus of coal production in China, the requirements for coal transportation capacity are increasing, and at present, the construction of China's coal transportation capacity is obviously unable to keep up with the growth rate of coal production. The reality is that in recent years, due to the limited access to the province, each province’s access roads in Shaanxi Province have been congested by coal-carrying vehicles at the peak of coal transportation. In 2010, due to the increase in coal shipments from Inner Mongolia and Gansu, the railway transportation capacity was unable to keep pace, and the use of road transport resulted in large traffic jams on the Beijing-Tibet Highway. The problem still severely restricts the development of China's coal industry.
(III) Problems Concerning Coal Safety Production The safety issue is still a problem that has always existed in the coal industry in China, and the problem of safe production in the coal industry in China is very serious. Since 2010, mine accidents in various parts of our country have occurred from time to time, and coal mine safety production seems to have occurred. It has not been effectively improved. Coal mine disasters have extremely bad influence on the country, society, enterprises and the public. The relevant state departments also attach great importance to the safety production of coal mines. However, despite the relentless demands of the relevant national departments to pay attention to the issue of coal mine safety production, the situation of coal mine disasters is basically no sign of improvement, that is, after the country requires leaders to accompany them, coal mine disaster still occurs. To a certain extent, the fundamental cause of the coal mine disaster is the lack of awareness of safe production of the company. The lack of awareness of safety production has led to insufficient investment in safe production, and finally resulted in frequent mine accidents. Therefore, in order to reduce the frequency of occurrence of mine disasters in the future, we must earnestly raise awareness of safe production in enterprises and increase investment in safe production.
(D) The coal reform work needs to be further improved. The last point is the problem of coal reform. At the beginning of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the state proposed to rectify the coal industry in China. In 2009, Shanxi Province took the lead in Coal reforms have been initiated across the province, and great achievements have been made, providing models for other coal-producing provinces in China. Subsequently, Henan, Shandong and other places also opened the prelude to the province's coal reform work. Although the provincial coal reforms have largely shut down the small coal mines in the province, the concentration of the coal industry has increased. However, there are also many problems in the entire coal reform process. First of all, the government dominance of coal reform is quite obvious, and the government-led coal reform work will inevitably have many market problems. This is a place that needs further improvement; secondly, in the coal reform work around the region, regional limitations, The limitations of the industry are quite obvious, which means that the merger and reorganization of the coal industry in various regions is basically limited to the scope of the province, and the industry is basically confined to the coal industry itself. According to the spirit of the State Council, mergers and acquisitions in China's coal industry should move towards cross-industry. , cross-regional, cross-ownership direction.
IV. Outlook for the Coal Industry in 2011 The above is a summary of the general situation of the coal industry in 2010. Due to the economic crisis in 2008, the coal industry was also seriously injured. In 2010, the coal industry can be said to have recovered to a greater extent. Regardless of the output, the consumption, or the market coal price, the coal industry has a recovery atmosphere. Next, we will look forward to the performance of the coal industry in 2011. In general, 2011 will be a year full of development opportunities for the coal industry. In 2011, China's economic construction will advance steadily, and domestic demand will continue to increase, thus stimulating the development of the coal industry. In addition, 2011 is also the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†construction. Many projects will start construction in 2011. This is also a big plus for the coal industry. The following will analyze the development trend of the coal industry in 2011 from specific aspects.
(I) The coal industry will continue to have high demand and high output in 2011. China's raw coal production will grow at a faster rate in 2010. It is conservatively estimated that the production of raw coal in 2010 will be above 3.2 billion tons, which is 2.96 billion tons of raw coal compared to 2009. The output also increased by more than 10%. In addition to the rapid increase in raw coal production in 2010, the coal demand in 2010 also increased significantly. This can be confirmed by the changes in China’s coal import and export volume. In 2010, China’s coal imports continued to rise sharply, while coal Exports still maintain a downward trend. Therefore, China’s coal demand is still growing. According to China's coal development plan, the focus of coal production during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period will continue to shift westwards, and thus the coal production in the western region will also continue to increase. After Shanxi Province undergoes coal reform, coal production will be further improved. Ascension, so that China's coal production in 2011 will continue to maintain growth. The growth in coal demand is mainly due to economic growth. In 2011, China’s economy will continue to grow and the economic growth rate may slow down, but the upward trend of economic development will not change. Second, 2011 is “ In the first year of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, all projects will start in succession in 2011, which will also increase China's coal demand.
(II) Coal prices will remain high in 2011. Coal price will rise. In 2010, China’s coal price rose significantly. The coal price in the whole year has two waves of rising prices. The first wave is summer coal consumption in China in April and May. Before the onset of the peak, coal prices rose rapidly, and then fell slightly. The second wave started from the end of September to the present, and the coal price rose again, almost equaling the coal price level at the beginning of 2008. We predict that the market coal price will continue to rise in 2011. First of all, in 2010, the National Development and Reform Commission imposed stringent restrictions on the contract coal price in 2011. As a result, the coal price in the market cannot be raised if the contract coal price cannot be raised. It is bound to become the only direction for coal companies to increase their profitability. Second, according to the current trend of international coal prices, international coal prices are likely to remain high or continue to surge in 2011, while China’s coal market is significantly larger than China’s coal imports. Rising, and the world coal market is also increasingly close, so that in 2011 China's coal market prices will remain at a high level of operation, the decline is less likely.
(3) The merger and reorganization of the coal industry will continue throughout the year to be the merger and reorganization of the coal industry. According to the spirit of the meeting of the State Council and the relevant notice of the National Development and Reform Commission, the national government supports the merger and reorganization of the coal industry in China, and thus coal Industry mergers and reorganization will continue to advance. The focus of the merger and reorganization of the coal industry in China will be to promote cross-industry, cross-regional, cross-ownership mergers and restructuring movement. The so-called cross-industry is to realize the integrated development of coal, electricity, coking, and metallurgical industries. At present, China has achieved certain achievements in the integration of coal and electricity. Under the advocacy of the relevant state departments, cross-industry between the future The merger and reorganization of coal enterprises will be more frequent; then the so-called cross-region is established in response to the current regionalization of coal reform is too strong, in the future, regional barriers will be gradually eliminated, the ability of powerful coal companies will They will be given equal opportunities to participate in the merger and reorganization of the coal industry; and the so-called cross-ownership system is proposed in response to the current misgivings about coal advancement and reorganization, and supports and encourages private capital to participate in our country. Coal industry mergers and acquisitions go.
The above is our analysis of the overall operation of the coal industry in 2010 and the prospects for the development of the coal industry in 2011. We believe that under the new development plan, China’s coal industry will achieve even more remarkable results and will also be for investors. We create more investment opportunities. The prospects for the development of the coal industry in 2011 can be said to be very promising and very promising.
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