In the first half of the year, GDP grew by 9.6% year-on-year. The growth rate of GDP in the first quarter and second quarter was 2.1% and 2.2% respectively. The expectations of the Chinese economy were not seen. Because the real estate and inflation and other factors have "sounded down" the Chinese economy's remarks did not get strong evidence, the observers who held this view did not appear as expected.   On July 13, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the operation of the Chinese economy in the first half of the year two days earlier than the original arrangement. According to statistics, preliminary estimates show that the GDP in the first half of the year was 204.459 billion yuan, which was 9.6% higher than the same period of last year. Among them, the first quarter increased by 9.7% and the second quarter increased by 9.5%. From the ring comparison (seasonally adjusted), the growth rate of GDP in the first quarter and second quarter was 2.1% and 2.2% respectively (see the table below for detailed data). The National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson Sheng Laiyun said: "From the first half of the year According to the indicator data, my view is that although some economic indicators have declined, the current overall economic situation of China's economy is good, and economic growth continues to change from the rapid growth of the previous policy stimulus to the independent growth.” The macro economy is running smoothly. Recently, "financial crocodile" Soros, "Dr. Doom" Lubini and some foreign investment banks have "song" the Chinese economy, such as "real estate may collapse", "suppress the opportunity of inflation missed", etc., for a time, domestic and foreign The debate about the "hard landing" or "soft landing" of the Chinese economy is on the rise. However, judging from the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, these "singing bad" remarks are not enough to hold. From the perspective of major economic indicators, GDP growth rate was 9.6% in the third quarter of 2010, 9.8% in the fourth quarter, 9.7% in the first quarter of 2011, and 9.5% in the second quarter. The economic growth rate for the fourth consecutive quarter was basically stable at 9.5%. -10%, and the growth rate is not low; in the first half of the year, fixed asset investment increased by 25.6% year-on-year. Since the second half of last year, the growth rate of fixed asset investment has stabilized at around 25% for four consecutive quarters; in the first half of the year, society The total retail sales of consumer goods was 858.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%. The growth rate for the fourth consecutive quarter was stable at around 17%.
Among the troikas that drive economic growth, the contribution rate of final consumption to GDP in the first half of the year was 47.5%, the contribution of total capital formation to GDP was 53.2%, and the contribution rate of imports and exports of goods and services to GDP was 0.7%. The three major demand-driven points for economic growth are 4.6, 5.1 and minus 0.1 percentage points respectively. It is not difficult to see that since the four quarters, consumption and investment have grown steadily without major fluctuations, and China's economy has operated steadily and normally. Therefore, the so-called "hard landing" and "inflection point theory" cannot be fully supported by evidence. From the perspective of real economy operation data, in the first half of the year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 14.3% year-on-year, which was basically stable at around 14% for four consecutive quarters. From January to May, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached RMB 190.3 billion. The growth rate of 27.9% indicates that the quality of enterprise growth is still relatively high; from January to May, the number of newly-employed people in urban areas exceeded 5 million. The number of migrant workers in the second quarter continued to increase on the basis of the first quarter; in the first half of the year, the growth rate of local investment was 28.1. %, the growth rate of private investment is 33.8%. These data all indicate that the overall state of China's economic growth is good, the momentum is still relatively strong, and there is no obvious risk of rapid economic growth. The risk comes from the status quo of some major economic indicators in the second quarter, Sheng Laiyun said: "This is mainly the result of active regulation, but also a normal reflection of the market after some stimulus policies are withdrawn." The cancellation and the introduction of automobile purchase restriction policies in some cities have caused the sales growth rate of automobiles above designated size to fall by more than 20 percentage points year-on-year. Because of the regulation of real estate, furniture sales, as well as building materials and decoration industries have been affected to varying degrees. The amount showed a significant decline year-on-year. "This is a normal reflection after the exit of the stimulus policy. Just like a person running, you can't always sprint with acceleration. He has to slow down and run better in the future." Sheng Laiyun said. In addition, the debate about the “soft landing” or “hard landing” of the Chinese economy is more based on whether it can effectively control inflation. The data shows that the CPI in June was 6.4%, which was 0.9 percentage points higher than that in May. Among them, the contribution of the hike factor was 3.7 percentage points, which was 0.5 percentage points higher than that of the previous month; the contribution of the new price increase factor was 0.4. percentage point. Among the new price increases, the price of food increased by a quarter-on-quarter, especially the price of pork rose by 11.4% in June (compared with 57.1% year-on-year), which affected the CPI's chain index by 0.36 percentage points. Although the CPI index hit a new high in June, a positive change is that the non-food price index continues to narrow. An important driving force for the rise in prices in the three months from March to May was the rise in non-food prices, while the non-food price index rose in June from the previous month. Sheng Laiyun said that this situation is worth observing. If it is a trend, it will have a major impact on our price trend in the later period. It also shows that our previous policy on price control is achieving positive results. From July 4th to 11th, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council held four economic situation symposiums to listen to the opinions and suggestions of some provincial government leaders, business leaders and economic experts. At the symposium, Wen Jiabao stressed that it is necessary to continue to stabilize the overall price level as the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control, and adhere to the basic orientation of macroeconomic regulation and control. This shows that the number one issue of China's current macro economy is still the management of inflation. Wen Jiabao pointed out that it is necessary to adhere to the implementation of a prudent monetary policy and maintain a reasonable growth in the total amount of social financing. Efforts will be made to optimize the credit structure, improve the level of financial services, and increase credit support for structural adjustment, especially for agriculture and small businesses. It is necessary to improve the macro-prudential policy framework and rationally apply various monetary policy tools to improve the pertinence of policies. Further promote reforms such as interest rate liberalization and exchange rate formation mechanisms. Strengthen effective monitoring of cross-border capital. Strengthen the supervision of off-balance sheet business. Avoiding the lag effect of monetary policy and superimposing many factors will have a big impact on the next stage of the real economy. We must conscientiously implement a proactive fiscal policy, strengthen income and reduce expenditures, and optimize the structure of expenditures. Strengthen the supervision of local government debt, continue to standardize local government financing platform companies, strictly control the increment, gradually digest the stock, and effectively resolve the debt risk. In accordance with the principle of classified management and differential treatment, properly handle debt repayment and follow-up financing of projects under construction. From the expressions of Wen Jiabao, it is not difficult to see that the main contradictions in the current macroeconomic situation, in addition to stabilizing prices, agriculture and SME financing, liquidity management, local government debt and financing management are the main objectives of entering the management's line of sight. .  

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