International coal prices push up domestic prices before supply and demand

The energy research center of the China Energy Research Association analyzed that the coal supply and demand situation in China this year is tight and loose, and the market price is bullish.

The reporter learned from the Energy Policy Research Center of the China Energy Research Association on the 26th that 2011 is the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. The development of the economy will be the main theme of all levels of government, and the national energy-saving emission reduction will also be loosened. This will increase the demand for coal. On the supply side, the further advancement of coal enterprise restructuring and the elimination of backward production capacity will further slow the increase in coal production capacity. Judging from this, this year's coal supply and demand situation is tight, and coal prices are bullish.

At the same time, the rise in international coal prices will also push up China's domestic coal prices. With the gradual recovery of the world economy, energy demand is also gradually recovering. In particular, the continued strong demand for coal in emerging markets in Asia will promote the gradual increase in international coal prices. According to related trade sources, the Japanese power plant had insufficient coal supply in January, and the recently purchased coal price for delivery in January exceeded 120 US dollars/ton. In February, coal prices were as high as $127/ton. In addition, the quantitative easing of monetary policy in the United States will lead to a depreciation of the US dollar, which will lead to an increase in the import price of coal denominated in US dollars, which will further reduce the import demand for coal and push up domestic prices. As soon as the Australian Resource Tax, which will start increasing revenue in July 2012, is formally finalized, this rise in coal prices, which is aimed at cost-cutting, may come ahead of schedule and is expected to start to produce effects in the second half of 2011. International coal prices may exceed the expected increase in 2011-2012, and in the context of China's high import volume, the rise in international coal prices is easily transmitted to the domestic market.

According to the analysis by the China Energy Research Association, from the current situation, the supply and demand of coal will be tight in the first quarter. The first quarter of the year will see tight coal due to two sessions (New Year's Day and Spring Festival) and the National Day Conference and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. ) Convene, on the one hand, to ensure the need for increased coal consumption in the power plant during this period, and on the other hand to ensure that coal mines are safely produced during this period to avoid accidents; the first quarter is the beginning of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and coal for industrial use. There will be an increase, but the lack of water and wind energy, and the tightness of coal transportation cannot be eased. In addition, in the first quarter of the year, “dry season”, with less rain in the south, and insufficient hydropower, were the unfavorable factors that caused the shortage of coal.