Smoke-free lump coal price forecast in Shanxi in 2012

Analysis of Anthracite Lump Coal Market in Shanxi in Recent Two Years

In 2010, prices rose steadily and production and sales balance

In 2010, the anthracite coal lump price in Shanxi Province showed a stable, medium, and small upward trend. The price was basically maintained at around 950 yuan/ton, and it only broke the 1,000 yuan/ton mark at the end of the year. Due to the limited release of new coal mine capacity, the growth rate of anthracite coal production has slowed down. With the continuous resumption of production of coal resources and integration of mines, the supply of anthracite will be stable in 2010. On the downstream side, in 2010, the pressure on the cost of the chemical industry increased, and some companies turned to the last coal and briquette. There was a slight decrease in the demand for anthracite lump coal, but the impact on the mainstream market was limited, and chemical coal was still the main downstream of lump coal. The majority of coal enterprises produced and sold anthracite in balance.

Rising trend in the first half of 2011

In the first half of 2011, the anthracite market performed well. Overall, the lump price showed a steady upward trend. In the first half of the year, the price of coal increased year-on-year: anthracite> injecting coal> thermal coal> coking coal, and smokeless blocks and small pieces in Shanxi. Prices rose by more than 43%. The monthly lump coal market in the first half of the month is analysed below: In January, the anthracite coal market maintained steady operation; before the holiday, the coal mine production was restricted; anthracite coal production remained low; and the downstream chemical fertilizer industry picked up, and companies started to prepare coal for the Spring Festival, and the demand for the anthracite coal market increased. Formed a good pull. However, after the price increase in late December, the company's mentality is relatively stable, the price trend into a relatively stable period.

The second, third and fourth months are the peaks of spring tillage and fertilizer use. In order to meet the market demand, chemical fertilizer companies generally maintain normal production. Although the drought conditions in most parts of the northern part of the country have been severe this spring, the fertilization of winter wheat has been affected. However, on the whole, after all, the severely affected area accounted for a relatively small proportion, and spring plowing in maize and spring wheat growing areas has not been affected for the time being, and the demand for agricultural fertilizers is still showing an increasing trend. Therefore, during this period, most nitrogen fertilizer companies continued to maintain normal production status, and the demand for anthracite lump basically remained stable. In May, coal mining production across the country gradually resumed, and the production of smoke-free lump coal increased. In terms of demand, the demand for lump coal in the fertilizer industry has increased; and in the methanol industry, the demand for lump coal has increased due to the resumption of restarts due to restarts by most manufacturers in May. In June, the output of anthracite coal did not increase much. As a whole, the supply and demand of anthracite lump increased slightly, the balance between supply and demand was basically balanced, and the price of anthracite lump coal remained stable.

Rising trend in the second half of the year, and the price adjustment will be blocked in October

In the second half of the year, the price of anthracite coal showed a steady upward trend, especially in August and September, and it remained stable after a few months. From the beginning of June to the middle of the month, the anthracite market has been in a tepid state. As downstream companies limit electricity, repairs, price increases, and price cuts, the mainstream prices of anthracite lump still show a high level of steady state, but a lot of coal The enterprises have reported that the shipment of smoke-free lump coal has slowed down, and even some small and medium-sized traders have suspended operations to wait for the market to improve. In July, anthracite went smoothly, especially in North China, where supply was somewhat tight, and many coal prices have been raised. According to Zhuo Chuang Information, the price of smokeless washable blocks in the Yangquan Guzhuang Coal Mine in Shanxi Province has increased by RMB 40/t.

In August and September, the methanol market warmed up, and the operating rate of enterprises increased significantly. Coupled with the decline in the production rate of coal companies, the supply in some regions was tight and the prices rose significantly. At the end of September, most coal companies have a strong willingness to increase prices, and many companies have stated that during the National Day, lump coal will have a slight increase of 20-30 yuan/ton, but due to the lack of post-holiday agricultural and civilian demand, it will not be followed up in time. On the current coal price has been at a high level, so the lump coal price remains the same, and the willingness to increase prices becomes a "bubble."

2. Outlook of anthracite-free lump coal in Shanxi in 2012

There are many factors that affect the fundamental trend of the 2012 coal market. First, the slowdown in world economic growth has become a reality. The slowdown in China's economic growth has begun to take shape, but the extent of the slowdown is still far from clear. Most coal companies indicate that they will face economic problems next year. It is weaker than in the second half of this year. Second, the closure of small coal mines will inevitably bring about a reduction in coal production, and it will take some time for coal mines to resume production. According to Zhuo Chuang Information, following the integration of resources in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Hebei, Hubei, The integration of resources in Sichuan, Hunan, and Xinjiang will also be strengthened. As a whole, the increase in coal production may slow down next year. Third, the majority of power plants suffer from serious coal shortages, and even predict that there will be power shortages next year. Lump coal downstream companies may restrict production, and the operating rate is not optimistic. Coupled with the current high coal prices, the cost pressure will increase, the raw material purchases will be weakened, and the support for the price increase of anthracite lump coal will not be strong.

Fourth, coal mines often have mine disasters, affecting coal supply, and the uncertainties are relatively large. Zhuo Chuang’s analysis shows that next year coal prices are likely to oscillate upward, and the increase will also depend on the acceptability of downstream companies. “Supplier's market” The situation will be eased. Fourth, due to the rapid progress in urbanization, most communities use collective heating. In the next few years, the growth of the use of coal by civilian coal will gradually weaken. The combination of the above factors will affect the long-term coexistence of factors in the coal market in the second half of the year. Judging from the overall trend, the degree of tension in the domestic coal market will show a certain degree of relaxation compared with the first half of the year. Next year, the supply and demand of anthracite will maintain the overall basic balance and partial tightness.

In 2012, the price of smoke-free lump coal will rise or shrink

Although anthracite is still a scarce resource at present, considering the market conditions of downstream companies, most coal companies will be more cautious about price increases. From October this year, it can be clearly seen that the prices of coal companies that had previously planned to increase prices have remained stable. It is reported that the current excess capacity of surplus fertilizers and other enterprises is serious. As the overall economic situation is unstable, most practitioners basically maintain a balance between production and sales, coupled with tight funding, weakening the purchasing power of raw materials, and will strive to achieve more in terms of coal prices. Right, next year, the supply and demand of downstream companies and coal companies will be even more intense. Judging from the overall economic situation, there will be limited space for anthracite coal prices to change next year, and the overall increase is likely to be greater at 10% compared with 2011. Due to the shortage of coal resources in Shanxi Province, the increase in local areas may reach around 15%.