The pressure of rising oil prices in 2012 is high

This year, Zhongshan's refined oil prices will become more flexible and the upward pressure will be greater. Yesterday, the reporter learned from the city's price department that the Bureau had recently conducted an analysis of the price trend of 2012 Zhongshan's important commodities. Among them, the Bureau expects that in 2012, the domestic product oil price will be more in sync with the international crude oil price, subject to international crude oil. Affected by the increase in prices, domestic refined oil prices will have greater upward pressure. Zhongshan's refined oil prices this year will also face considerable upward pressure.

The price of oil in Zhongshan has risen in recent years. It is reported that in recent years, the price of oil products in Zhongshan has been rising and oscillating. Price department statistics from 2003 to the present 9 years, the National Development and Reform Commission adjusted the oil price 32 times, of which 6 cuts, 26 times.

According to analysis by the relevant person in charge of the city's price department, the price of oil in Zhongshan is commensurate with domestic oil prices, while the price of oil in domestic products is synchronized with international crude oil prices. Therefore, the main reason for the rise in oil prices in Zhongshan in recent years is the rise in international crude oil prices, while the international crude oil prices are mainly It is closely related to its supply and demand relations, the geopolitical situation of oil export, and the depreciation of the US dollar.

For the prediction of the trend of oil prices this year, the price department believes that the trend of international crude oil prices in 2012 is relatively clear, and the pressure of upward pressure is greater. On the one hand, the inertia of economic growth in emerging economies and the recovery of the US economy will be important drivers of high oil prices. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP growth rate reached 9.2% in 2011, although the growth rate has declined from 2010, but it is still as high as 9%.

The demand for crude oil in the new economy is very strong. China is the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the United States. In 2010 and 2011, oil consumption reached 450 million tons and 477 million tons, respectively, while foreign dependence reached 54.8% and 57%, China Energy Development Report 2011 issued by China Energy Research Association predicts that China's foreign oil dependence will exceed 60% in 2015. Such a huge amount of consumption and high external dependence will become an important factor supporting the high oil price operation. . Judging from the current situation, the inertia of economic growth in countries such as China and India is still relatively strong, and it will be able to maintain a relatively high growth rate in 2012. The robust demand for crude oil in emerging economies will constitute a supporting force on the demand side. In addition, the US manufacturing index hit its highest level in nine months in January, indicating that continued strong recovery of the manufacturing sector will also support higher crude oil demand, and the possibility of a drop in crude oil prices is very small. The synchronicity between the prices of domestic refined oil and international crude oil is stronger, so the refined oil prices will become more flexible in the future and the upward pressure will be greater.