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Steel demand fell significantly. In 2011, the annual crude steel output was 683.27 million tons, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, but the crude steel output in December was 52.16 million tons, an increase of only 0.7%. The average daily crude steel output in December was 1.683 million tons, down 15.8% from the 1.989 million tons in June 2011. In the short term, steel supply is still oversupply. The export remained stable. In December 2011, the export of steel products was 3.72 million tons, down 470,000 tons from November. Overall, although exports have declined, the overall situation has remained stable. Stocks are rising rapidly. Historically, during the winter inventory reserve, steel inventories (especially for construction steel) generally increase by 80%-110%. At present, the stock of rebar is 6.559 million tons, which is 12.7% lower than the highest level last year. We believe that the inventory will continue to increase. It is estimated that the increase in stocks will continue until mid-March. The profit was sluggish and one third was lost. From the current situation, the steel industry's profitability is in the most difficult period due to the sharp drop in steel prices. Spring determines the fate of steel and usher in a good period of performance improvement. From the historical data of 2005-2011, the steel consumption in the spring of the second year is generally 10%-15% higher than that of the previous year, and the increase in steel consumption will generally drive the steel price to rise. According to the current consumption situation, this year's situation may change. We still think that the spring steel consumption season is high, but this year, due to the decline of infrastructure, even if demand for this spring increased by 10%-15%, the peak consumption is still worse than last spring. . Investment can be selected from three aspects: the southeast and northwest of the 12th Five-Year Plan, which still have room for development in the future, mainly recommend Bayi Iron and Steel, Xinxing Casting Pipe, Sangang Shuguang, Jiuquan Hongxing. The life cycle of special steel is still growing rapidly. We are optimistic about Daye Special Steel and Xining Special Steel with good profitability and resources. In the future, the company's competition is mainly reflected in the product structure and competitive products. We recommend Baosteel Co., Ltd., Daye Special Steel and Xinxing Casting Pipe with competitive advantages.