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There is a concept of "Lewis turning point" in development economics, that is, the turning point of labor surplus to shortage. It is generally believed that China's Lewis turning point has appeared in 2004. Since then, the unemployment rate has fallen, the wage increase of rural residents has increased, the income and consumption growth of rural residents in the central and western regions have risen, and the signs of rising labor costs are very obvious. According to the experience of Japan and South Korea, from the "Lewis turning point" to the turning point of "demographic dividend", there is still a buffer time of more than one generation (about 30-40 years). The population structure advantage of high labor population ratio and low dependency ratio can be Continued to support economic development after the emergence of "Lewis Turning Point". However, the serious problem facing China is that this period is only 8 years, that is, when it entered the Lewis turning point in 2004, the 2012 demographic dividend window was closed. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2012, China’s 15-59-year-old working-age population showed an absolute decline for the first time in a fairly long period of time, a decrease of 3.45 million over the previous year. The overly rushed buffer period has made China's economic adjustments passive.
Some economic characteristics of the post-population dividend period are worthy of attention and will become an important part of the "new normal" of the Chinese economy. Due to the disappearance of the demographic dividend, the adjustment period of this round of China's economy is destined to be long, deep, and high in pain index. Specifically, in terms of industrial development, labor-intensive industries that rely on demographic dividends generally face deep adjustments. "Machine substitution" has become the mainstream trend of manufacturing development in various regions. Further, the development of equipment manufacturing industry and "Industry 4.0" has become a policy. Support the focus to significantly increase labor productivity and overcome the bottleneck of labor shortage. In terms of urbanization, there will be a general surplus in the mass urban masses that have been rapidly urbanized in the past. In recent years, the number of "ghost towns" in China has been frequently verified, indicating that the grand urban construction plan cannot be effectively supported by population introduction. ANBUND's research in the central and eastern regions shows that many governments have still had unrealistic expectations for city size and population introduction when preparing the "13th Five-Year Plan", and have formulated a huge urban construction plan, which may be the future. Urban development has buried huge hidden dangers.
What is even more interesting is the impact on the financial system. The demographic dividend window is closed, and the aging of the population will significantly change the ratio of resources to consumption and savings. Consumption will rise and savings will fall, which will lead to a decline in investment growth. Investment-led economic growth is difficult to sustain. In the past two years, the rate of increase in deposits has slowed significantly. In the first 10 months of this year, RMB deposits increased by 8.09 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.77 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year. With the aging of the population in the next five years, the trend of slowing down and even negative growth in deposits is difficult to reverse. The low-interest liabilities that China's banking industry is relying on will no longer be based. The Chinese financial system, which is dominated by indirect finance, will also face The arduous challenge of rising real interest rates. In fact, the trend of rising real interest rates has been very obvious recently, which is reflected in the high cost of bank storage, the difficulty of financing for SMEs, the high cost of financing, and the risk-free rate of return due to the sharp increase in rigid redemption.
In the face of the pressure of the post-demographic dividend period, there is no policy tool that can be effective in the short term, and the solution of the problem will be long and difficult. From the perspective of the aging countries of Japan and Europe, even with the world's most praised welfare system and silver economy, the economic slowdown, falling prices (deflation) and the decline of social vitality are still difficult to avoid, which is a common problem of aging. In contrast, China’s problems are likely to be more serious, as the population shrinks much faster than Europe and Japan. From the total fertility rate (TFR), the UK is 2.0, France is 1.99, Germany is 1.42, Japan is 1.39, and China is only 1.04. In general, the total fertility rate needs to reach 2.1-2.2 to maintain the balance of the intergenerational population. The long-term (since the 1990s) total fertility rate below the generational replacement level is the main reason why the two inflection points in China are so close. This also shows that the further adjustment of China's population policy is imminent. Otherwise, after another generation of time, it will face the situation of a big country's empty nest. By then, any policy and reform will be unable to return to heaven.
Population pressure put pressure on China's economic transformation and upgrading, and the too hasty population buffer period has made China's economic adjustments passive. The cycle and depth of this round of economic adjustment will far exceed expectations, and it will have a profound impact on China's economic, financial and social systems.
Abstract The Chinese economy is in the stage of "three phases of superposition". The three major pressures of the current Chinese economy are the three major pressures of economic slowdown, structural adjustment and early stimulus policies. In addition to the "three-phase superposition", there are still a number of factors that seriously restrict the development of China's economy - from the long-term...
The Chinese economy is in the stage of "three phases of superposition". The three major pressures of the current Chinese economy are the three major pressures of economic slowdown, structural adjustment and early stimulus policies. In addition to the "three-phase superposition", there is still a heavy factor that seriously restricts the development of China's economy. In the long run, population pressure is the most difficult to circumvent the past, and will continue to pressure the Chinese economy from factor-driven to productivity-driven. Transformation.