Seeing a message, "The latest bank credit policy in 2015, the photovoltaic industry was included in the compression industry" (referred to as "credit"), began to think that the time is wrong, when the confirmation is 2015, the old red becomes a bit " gosh". Laohong did not know what the general basis for formulating such policies was, so he tried to rethink the photovoltaic industry for the banks in accordance with the three principles of “risk, profitability, and liquidityâ€. The conclusion is: I try to understand it, but it tries not to let me understand. First of all, it runs counter to the overall trend of the photovoltaic industry and the recovery of sustainable profitability for competitive enterprises. From the development stage, China's PV industry has undergone early scale development since 2004. After the lowest level of industrial integration in 2013, it is undergoing a critical period of comprehensive recovery and completion of integration. Helping competitive enterprises to achieve industrial integration and strengthen international competitiveness through mergers and acquisitions, expanding reproduction, is both a profit opportunity for banks and a social responsibility for banks. From the perspective of supply and demand, the installed capacity of global PV power plants is around 55GW in 2015, and the production capacity of Chinese components is about 50GW. China's PV products are ranked 60% of the global market share, and the relationship between supply and demand is rapidly becoming more reasonable. There has been a structural shortage of supply. In 2015, the goal of China's PV power plant construction increased from 10GW in the previous year to 17.8GW, and it is not impossible to reach 20GW in the end. In short, this is not an oversupply industry, and the possibility of short supply is a high probability. From the perspective of the profitability of competitive enterprises in the middle and lower reaches of the industry chain, the upstream competitive enterprises are returning to profit, and the market share is relatively reasonable. In 2014, GCL-Poly achieved a net profit of HK$1.955 billion on the basis of a loss of 660 million last year. Polysilicon production accounted for 28% of the global market share. The profitability of mid-stream competitive enterprises was stable and the market share was developing at a reasonable proportion. In the fourth quarter of 2014, the gross profit margins of Artes and Jingke reached 19.3% and 22.8% respectively. The market share of the top ten component companies in China reached 56%; the successful business model of the downstream power station construction and operation market is under discussion. Based on the downstream market, it is a deterministic income market. It is the most suitable market for financial investment. With the market environment brought about by the introduction of the new “electricity reform†policy, a number of excellent and sustainable large-scale enterprises are taking shape. Second, it runs counter to the country's policy orientation. China is a socialist country with Chinese characteristics, and its national policy plays an important guiding role in the development of the market economy. In July 2013, the “Several Opinions of the State Council on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry†and the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group in June 2014, “Promoting the Energy Supply Revolution... Focusing on the development of non-coal energy, forming coal, Oil, gas, nuclear, new energy, multi-wheel drive energy supply system for renewable energy, the emission reduction agreement signed by the leaders of China and the United States at the APEC summit in Beijing in November, and the Office of the State Council The issuance of the "Notice on Printing and Developing the Energy Development Strategic Action Plan (2014-2020)" has undoubtedly established an important position of the photovoltaic industry in the national energy development strategy. Again, it runs counter to the principle of marketization. According to the risk-return coefficient, “credit†arranges loan objects in five categories. Laohong is unable to conduct horizontal comparison of five major industries, and only searches for the average gross profit margin of some industries in the “active support industry†ranked first. “The average gross profit margin of “automobile production and spare parts manufacturing enterprises†is between 19% and 25%, which has been declining in recent years.†The reality is that some competitive PV companies have already reached this target, surpassing it. Just in the near future. Talking about the loan thinking, due to the imperfection of the law and the integrity system, China's banking logic is exactly the same as China's judicial logic. It is different from the “innocent inference†of many mature countries, but the “guilty inferenceâ€, that is, the lender has a loan. Possible preconceived thinking. 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