Compound fertilizer long and short balance market stability

The recent trend of the compound fertilizer market is relatively stable, with little price fluctuation. Comprehensive analysis, the current market's Lido Lianyi factors are in a relatively balanced state, the compound fertilizer market before the Spring Festival is expected to continue to maintain a stable trend.

At present, the factory price of 25% chlorine-based compound fertilizer is mostly 1250 to 1400 yuan (ton price, the same below), 30% chlorine is 1600 to 1900 yuan, 40% chlorine is 2300 to 2500 yuan, and 45% chlorine is 2520 to 2700 yuan. , 48% chlorine 2750 ~ 2850 yuan. 40%* base 2400-2600 yuan, 45%* base 2650-2850 yuan.

At present, there are three favorable factors in the compound fertilizer market: First, as the prices of raw materials are basically stable and the coming of the Spring Festival, the speed of dealers getting goods and getting goods has been accelerated, so as to prepare for the sales after the Spring Festival and make the market take a relatively better. Second, the high cost of raw materials has formed a strong support for the price of compound fertilizers. Third, since October, the slow progress of the market has been slow, the society has little reserves, and there are gaps in the market, which also means that there are certain opportunities in the future.

However, the compound fertilizer market is also facing many unfavorable factors: First, the price is high. In 2011, the price of compound fertilizer reached a new high in autumn sowing. Although it fell afterwards, it was actually a small drop. In terms of light storage prices, 2011-2012 is basically the highest in the calendar year. The second is the decline in the prices of agricultural products. The sharp drop in the prices of agricultural products such as vegetables and fruits made distributors less confident in the 2012 spring plowing market. Third, funding is tight. This year, not only the prices of agricultural products have fallen, but also sales have been sluggish. Farmers have no money in their hands. Many grass-roots distributors first sold fertilizers to farmers. Farmers sold agricultural products and then returned the money to dealers. Now that agricultural products have not been sold, it has caused difficulties for dealers to withdraw their funds, so no funds are available for purchase. Fourth, the new tariff scheme has formed a long-term bearish for the compound fertilizer market. The high tariff imposed on the export of binary fertilizers in 2012 will result in a significant drop in export volume. After the export is blocked, the products can only compete in the domestic market. Coupled with the increase in new production capacity, the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic market will become more prominent.