Hong Wei: China's photovoltaic product prices play a major role in the world

One European and American country's "double opposition" to China's photovoltaic industry has enabled more Chinese people to know two concepts: "photovoltaic" and "double opposition." A huge change in China's photovoltaic industry has made two people who care about it form a completely different view of “good” and “bad”. If passers-by quarrel, do not have to be serious. But for the photovoltaic industry, it is not. China's photovoltaics have worked hard for 10 years. It involves trillions of assets and 500,000 jobs. For the sake of tomorrow in this industry, there should be an objective analysis. Fortunately, the "Global 500 Research and Evaluation of New Energy Companies" released today has an objective arrangement for the past of China's photovoltaic industry. Fortunately, the State Council recently held a special executive meeting to make the future of China's photovoltaic industry. Comprehensive arrangements.

Let's talk about the Chinese PV industry that is “better than you think”: First, no matter how many, the traditional energy that we use is always exhausted, and it also brings us pollution. People are the smartest animals, knowing that it is rainy, so to find new energy, PV is doing this “good” thing. However, the cost of doing "good" things is very high. In 2007, the price of photovoltaic modules was around 25 yuan per watt. The cost of electricity was once, and photovoltaic was nearly ten times higher than burning coal. At present, the module price is less than 5 yuan, and the cost of electricity generation is in accordance with the average sunshine level. China is twice as high as traditional energy and it is already near parity in Europe.

Not long ago, Spain had just built a totally unsubsidized photovoltaic power plant. This is the result of the concerted efforts of the global photovoltaic people and the things they did not dare to think of a few years ago, and in which the Chinese PV industry has played the most important role, so "than you think it is good"; Second, in the human to photovoltaic In the exploration of the business, China was a latecomer. At the beginning, it was almost a blank sheet. China's photovoltaic industry took ten years to make our products account for more than 60% of the global market. Our companies occupy the top ten in the world. Eight of the capacity companies. This achievement is the development of Chinese companies in other people's markets, in accordance with other people's standards, and enjoying the subsidies of others. Therefore, we have also created a very competitive photovoltaic enterprise group. In China’s industry, there is not much to achieve. This was a good result and people were left with no choice but to take a "double counter" approach. So, the Chinese PV people spent a decade on that blank piece of paper and drew a picture that was "better than you think."

Let's talk about China's PV industry that is "worse than you think": When it comes to "poor," everyone already knows that the "double reaction" is not bad. With the cruel integration of the photovoltaic industry, a large number of uncompetitive companies will die. There are also “sunflower” losses of 200 million yuan in these two days. There is a “running path” for the owner of “Super Sun Sun”. This is not bad. It is the rules of the market. "What is worse than you think" is: First, China's PV companies used to rely on "vertical integration" in the past, relying on the scale of competition, the usual competitive means of producing capacity, I am afraid in the coming period of time is still difficult to change, that is "poor" In addition, we cannot quickly rise to rely mainly on technological advances to guide industrial development. This is an insurmountable historical stage in the process of China's economic development. China's television, mobile phones, and automobiles, including the steel industry, have failed to pass. If it is required that the photovoltaic industry is independent and it is unrealistic to implement it, it is unrealistic. On the one hand, to illustrate, on the one hand, the State Grid Corporation of China, which guarded the development of new energy sources in mid-November, has finally said that it “welcomes” photovoltaic power generation to the grid. For a time, many private “supporters” of photovoltaic power generation competed in their own homes. Lay the panels on the roof and apply for power generation on the grid.

However, the most crucial issue that everyone is pursuing is to enjoy the country's approved tariff subsidies but they have not obtained approval from the country because of the application channels. Everybody knows. In the world’s largest photovoltaic country, the German rooftop power station accounts for about 60% of all photovoltaic power stations. “Distributed” and “power subsidies” have proven effective in overseas mature countries, and it has been confirmed by the Chinese government. The direction of the development of new energy power generation, and has introduced a number of policies. However, the reality actually exemplifies a “deafness” situation: On the one hand, the state attaches great importance to it and policies continue. On the other hand, policies have always been difficult to achieve and become productive forces. Therefore, I often say that the country has gone through long marches in order to develop the economy. However, the effect of policies is often criticized by the public opinion because the “last meter” of convergence between policy and market is not smooth and “discounted”. The "poor" of China's photovoltaic industry is at a deep level.

It is so bad, so the difficulty is because: The photovoltaic industry is a special industry, and it is an industry that needs policies and markets to cooperate closely. It has both the commonness of the general industry and the special nature that the general industry does not have. As a general industry, the progress of an industry is difficult to leap over the historical background of national development; as a special industry, the development of a new economic form is challenging the country's original management structure and interests. In short, PV is a small industry, but its development bears a large part of China's industrial reforms. Therefore, the development of China's photovoltaic industry must be harder and worse than you think. It focuses on the contradiction of the "difference" in the country's powerful development and the imperfect industrial development environment. This also means that people who over-demand the environment of this industry are not mature enough. China needs an objective and active photovoltaic industry development environment.

How do you view the current Chinese PV industry? Because the above two conditions of “good” and “bad” exist at the same time, two completely different opinions have been formed. Social development is now so fast that people think that the problem is very intuitive and even very utilitarian. Whether it is to think of the Chinese PV industry as "good" or as "bad", it is inaccurate. According to philosophy, there are two aspects of contradiction in any one thing. The two sides of a contradiction are affected by major contradictions and can be transformed into each other under certain conditions.

In fashionable terms, it is called "the crisis is the 'machine' in the 'crisis'." I am full of confidence in the Chinese PV industry that has undergone “double opposition” and industrial integration. It is based on two points. First, “thinned dead camels are better than Ma Da” and “play” the processing industry. Within 10 years, “who” can also play in China. . In the current global PV industry adjustment of supply and demand, industrial integration is the most difficult time, after all, China's photovoltaic industry with international competitiveness, "thin die camel than Martha," this is the main contradiction, China's photovoltaic company is difficult, foreign companies are more difficult . Influenced by various factors, within ten years, the status of the leader of China's processing industry will not be able to compete. At that time, the photovoltaic industry should truly become a high-tech industry. If it fails, there will be no existing value. Second, the country's surprising support. Those who do not see the essence of the problem like to say: China's photovoltaic industry cannot, because equipment and markets are “outside”. When it comes to “equipment out,” I would like to ask which industry in China is not in the early stages of development. The Chinese PV companies have grown up eating this calcium-deficient milk since the day they were born, and have grown no worse than other children. When it comes to "market out," it's a fact that in the past, only two breasts could eat one. Now that the breasts in the domestic market can be eaten, it can be eaten especially for competitive companies.

Because the national terminal market target for the development of photovoltaics during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” has been clearly raised from 5GW at the beginning of last year to 21GW, and 40GW has been mentioned recently. Not long ago, the State Council executive meeting specifically discussed the issue of photovoltaic development policy. This is not only rare for a small industry, but also indicates that the photovoltaic industry has only served abroad from the past to enter the room and formally included in the national strategy. Emerging industries focus on sequences. I think that with the existing foundation of China's photovoltaic industry, with the strong support of the state, as long as the organic integration of the policy and the market is resolved, the development of China's photovoltaic industry will certainly be better than you think.

The "Top 500" released today seems to be the sort of business, but its significance goes far beyond that. The development of any industry requires standards, and the photovoltaic industry needs to set standards early. In the past, relevant standards were formulated by developed countries. This cannot be separated from the economic and social development and maturity of a country. It can be said that the development of China's new energy industry, represented by photovoltaics, is in sync with the world and is even more competitive. With a responsible attitude towards the new human energy industry, why can't China do this? Why can't Chinese people give pointers to the country? Therefore, the significance of the "Top 500" is that the Chinese are beginning to help the world's new energy companies to set standards.

Before the meeting, some experts reminded me that the “Top 500” 2012 released today is the result of the assessment of corporate performance in 2011. It is implied: 2012 is the worst year for China’s photovoltaic industry, and it’s “Top 500” by 2013. At the time of publication, will China's PV companies undergo major changes in their global rankings? As a serious researcher, I am very confident that the main basic data of the “Top 500” major national scientific research project is the company’s new energy business sales, which is also internationally accepted. It can be told that: Yingli Company, a well-known photovoltaic company in China, will achieve sales of more than 2.1 GW this year, ranking first in the world. As for sales prices, sales prices of China's photovoltaic products have played a major role in the global market in the past year or so. Based on this, Yingli Company should not be inferior in the ranking of the 2013 Top 500. I think so for Yingli. I think so for the Chinese PV industry.

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