Post-holiday steel price changes forecast

Before the holiday, the price of domestic coating market was steadily rising due to the cost of steel mills. The cost has also risen slightly. However, the current market demand has not fully followed. Therefore, businesses and manufacturers have faced an upside down situation and sales are extremely rampant. Judging from the current situation, there was no significant improvement in the amount of downstream purchases before the holiday and the amount of normal purchases was still maintained, and the rising prices also gave them a wait-and-see mood. In the short term, the support provided by the downstream is not strong, and the steel mills are still strong, and businesses are in a dilemma in the middle. In a comprehensive view, the market sales pressure is still there, inventory pressure is still acceptable, but poor attitude and high cost have a great impact on the idea of ​​stocking and stocking. It is understood that the ex-factory price of the major steel mills will remain stable mainly after the holiday. According to this estimate, the post-holiday market will continue to maintain its weak adjustment trend. Below we discuss from several aspects:

1. There is pressure to release production capacity. Will the market continue to follow the adjustment?

In January-August 2013, the output of plating plates was 27.962 million tons, up 10.8% from the previous month; the output of coated plates was 4.804 million tons, a decrease of -11.5% from the previous month. According to the export situation, the export volume of coated plates from January to August was 5.172 million tons, up by 16.8% from the previous month, and the export volume of coated plates was 2.966 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. Above, we can see that the production of coated plates has been on the rise, but the production of coated plates has been declining. It is understood that the downstream manufacturing industry did not experience a significant decline in the first half of the year. Instead, the demand for the downstream manufacturing industry rose slightly, but it appeared to be worse in terms of engineering and construction with a large amount of coated plates. As a result, domestic demand was affected overall. . However, the export situation has changed again and again, and both the coated and coated panels have improved markedly. After the city's coated panels have undergone severe anti-invasion and domestic market squeezes, the export volume has rebounded. However, this is also the case. Bring certain expected pressure to the market, especially the adjustment between domestic and foreign price balances. Based on the above analysis, the production pressure of coated plates in the domestic market after the holiday is still relatively large. On the contrary, the production pressure of coated plates does not appear to be more obviously adjusted, but the overall downstream demand will not be too obvious in a short time.

2. The long process will increase the factory cost, and the operating rate of private enterprise producers will continue to come back. Looking after the market is good? Still bad?

The steel mills began to increase the prices of HRC products from June onwards, and the operating rate of private enterprises declined steadily, and the operating rate of some companies was less than 25%. According to our understanding, the upstream products of the long-flow process plant gradually generate profits, which also exerts great pressure on the downstream companies. At present, the capacity utilization ratio of coated products is low and, excluding the production capacity that has been suspended for some regions, the average national average galvanized output can only be maintained at around 80%, while the color coating production can only be between 40-50%. With the capacity line that has been shut down, the utilization rate will continue to drop by about 20%. According to the above situation, it seems that the amount of coated products has been controlled and the market price is positive, but from another point of view, the steel mills are also raising the risk to the downstream private enterprises while raising the hot and cold prices. , Passing a large amount of risk to the downstream companies will make them invincible.

3. The wait-and-feel sentiment remained in the price adjustment In addition to the snow disaster in 2008, the current market price was at an intermediate level of 07-12 years, and the relative ex-factory price of steel mills increased slightly. From the current iron ore prices, the production cost of SPHC upstream of coated coils should be around 3,550 yuan per ton of tax, plus other ancillary costs. After reaching the market, it will need to reach 4,650 yuan per ton. Factory bids, some manufacturers of hot coil prices and prices in the vicinity of this price, this business, manufacturers have different mentality on the outlook, private factories believe that sales are not good, prices still have room for decline, while businesses are even more strong Wait and see mood. In terms of anti-dumping, due to the increase in exports of coated plates, especially to countries in Southeast Asia, some dissatisfaction was triggered. From the news, it is very likely that the National Congress of the People’s Republic of China will re-conduct the coated plates in November. Anti-dumping investigations. As such, it is estimated that the space and expectations of the market adjustment in the later period will be adjusted accordingly.

4. After the holiday season, the domestic color coating market expects that from the habit of previous years, after the Chinese New Year, the market will adopt a “good start” form to increase the market price upwards. However, this year's situation has seen no obvious policy. Adjustments and funding are relatively tight, and overall expectations are slightly weaker. Judging from the situation of previous years, the National Day holiday is in a slight upward phase, but the length of time after the rise is mixed. The current market environment is slightly different from the previous years. First, there was no obvious consumption of demand in the previous period, mostly wait-and-see; and second, steel mill costs are still strong, so the market price has been repeatedly inverted to give market opportunities and It is not obvious; Third, the situation of market funds is slightly worse than in previous years, so there is no more capital turnover in the hands, which also makes the market operation less active. In view of the above points of view, after the holiday, there may be price adjustments that tend to be weaker, but the short-term adjustments will not be excessive, which is more appropriate to the current market conditions and mentality.