Abstract Although there are still several working days according to the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices next Monday, the current round of oil price seems to have been decided. Zhongxin.com Energy Channel interviewed several analysts and learned that this round of domestic oil price reduction has basically become a foregone conclusion, and the downward adjustment may be the biggest one this year...
Although there are still several working days according to the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices next Monday, the current round of oil price seems to have been decided. Zhongxin.com Energy Channel interviewed a number of analysts and learned that this round of domestic oil price reduction has basically become a foregone conclusion, and the downward adjustment may be the biggest one this year, the decline may reach 250 yuan / ton. By then, the national 93# gasoline will take a big step away from the nearby “8-yuan era”.

Domestic oil prices will be lower next Monday

According to the current refined oil pricing mechanism, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic oil prices will open at 24:00 on Monday (July 21). Chinanews.com Energy Channel was informed that geopolitics is still the leading factor in the recent sharp shocks in oil prices during this cycle. As investors expect Iraqi and Libyan crude oil exports to recover, market concerns about oil supply in the Middle East are further weakened. The positive trend in the oil export situation in the Middle East has intensified concerns about the oversupply of the global oil market in the short term, and the rise in oil prices began to fall sharply before the end of the oil price.

Since July 7, oil price adjustment has been stranded until July 16, the price of crude oil prices has remained in the negative range, falling from -1.8% to -3.68%, while international oil prices have fallen to low since May 6. point. According to the forecast of the North Oil Company, the main crude oil hits the varieties. If the international crude oil does not fall more than the next two working days, the decline will reach 250 yuan/ton.

Treasure Island analyst Yu Jinbo said: "Although the decline in crude oil inventories announced by the American Petroleum Institute is higher than previous market expectations, the recent international crude oil futures prices may rebound slightly, but the impact on the rate of change is limited, the domestic retail price of refined oil is lowered. The magnitude is difficult to reduce, and the reduction will be the lowest since this year."

The corresponding reduction in refined oil products predicted by Zhongyu Information also reached RMB 230/ton. Zhongyu Information analyst Gao Chengsha told the China New Network Energy Channel: "If the crude oil maintains a small fluctuation in the current price level, the final adjustment will be widened to around 250 yuan / ton, equivalent to the standard 90# gasoline 0.18 yuan / liter, 0 #柴油0.21 yuan / liter, then the national 93 # gasoline will be a big step away from the nearby '8 yuan era'."

According to Gao Chengsha, the current round of price adjustments may be the biggest adjustment since July 20, 2013, or the biggest decline since April 25, 2013.

The price adjustment is expected to increase the domestic wholesale price of refined oil products

The sharp drop in crude oil in a short period of time has led to a strong downward adjustment in refined oil prices. Affected by this, the wholesale price of domestic refined oil products fell, and the trading volume was also bleak.

“The main business and refining and shipping situation are not ideal, so the recent sales policy is more flexible. Take the main units in the country as an example. At present, there are various sales promotion methods, and whether it is price hikes to stimulate customers to receive goods, or price cuts to benefit customers and customers, Even some individual units have control measures, but they are not effective. According to the implementation of refined oil price adjustment on June 24, the average price of 93# gasoline in China fell by 107 yuan/ton, and the average price of 0# diesel fell by 132 yuan/ton. There is still a big gap in the expected range of this round of downgrades." Gao Chengsha told the China New Network Energy Channel.

According to Gao Chengsha, since the domestic product oil price zero price difference has been set to record the highest record since June 24, the profit of the retail chain has been rising steadily, the promotion of gas stations has been increasing, and the middlemen and terminal industries have a conservative mentality and the market is small. Single transaction.

According to Zhuo Chuang Information's survey of 30 social trade units around the coast and Neijiang, as of the week of July 16, 2014, the domestic diesel oil trading unit's diesel inventory accounted for 15.73% of the storage capacity, down 0.54% from the previous cycle. . The inventory of refined oil supply units has risen sharply. According to Zhuo Chuang Information Research, the inventory of diesel in Shandong this week was 22.28%, up 4.85% from the previous month.

According to the analysis of the North Oil Institute, the international crude oil price trend has led to a strong bearish sentiment in the domestic market. The users are waiting to wait for the price adjustment next Monday. The sales volume is difficult to increase. It is expected that the wholesale price of domestic refined oil will continue to decline.

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