National Coal Economic Operation in the First April

Since the beginning of this year, the operation of the coal economy has been basically stable. The coal production and sales volume maintained a relatively rapid growth, the market demand was strong, imports decreased, and inventory slowed down. The total supply and demand in the coal market remained basically balanced. Since April, due to multiple factors, the coal market in some regions has been tight, and the market price of thermal coal has increased.

I. Basic conditions and characteristics of coal economic operation

(I) The coal production and sales volume maintained a relatively rapid growth. According to express reports, the country's raw coal output during the first four months was 1.12 billion tons, an increase of 112 million tons, an increase of 11.1%. Among them, the monthly output in April was 300 million tons, an increase of 22.75 million tons, an increase of 8.2%. The coal production in major coal producing provinces grew rapidly. In the first four months, Shanxi's coal production was 256 million tons, an increase of 18.3% year-on-year; Inner Mongolia's production was 287 million tons, an increase of 32.2% year-on-year; Shaanxi Province's output was 119 million tons, an increase of 9.01% year-on-year.

In the first four months, the nation's coal sales were 1.085 billion tons, an increase of 91.56 million tons, an increase of 9.2%. Among them, April sales of 290 million tons in the same month, an increase of 19.36 million tons, an increase of 7.2%.

(II) The amount of coal railway transportation and port delivery has increased significantly. In the first four months, the national railroad coal traffic volume was 73.062 million tons, an increase of 84.83 million tons, an increase of 13.1%. In the month of April, the coal traffic volume of railways was 17.08 million tons, an increase of 16.1 million tons, an increase of 10.4%. In the first four months of Daqin Line, the coal traffic volume was 140 million tons, an increase of 9.4% year-on-year.

In the first four months, coal shipments from major ports throughout the country totaled 209.51 million tons, an increase of 21.4% year-on-year; 53.24 million tons were sent in April, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%. In the north, the main port for water transported 187.55 million tons of coal, an increase of 21.4%; among them, Qinhuangdao Port transshipped 79 million tons, an increase of 12.3%; Tangshan Port (including Jingtang Port and Caofeidian Port) transported 40 million tons, an increase of 60%.

(3) Coal stocks are at normal levels. As of the end of April, the coal inventory of the whole society was 202.23 million tons, a decrease of 14.96 million tons from the beginning of the year, a decrease of 6.9%. Among them, coal enterprises had an inventories of 46.8 million tons, a decrease of 4.2 million tons or 8.2% from the beginning of the year, and key power generation enterprises had stored 52.75 million tons of coal, 3.32 million tons less than the beginning of the year, a decrease of 5.9%, and the available days for storing coal were about 14 days; The stock of transit ports was 16.18 million tons, a decrease of 7.55 million tons from the beginning of the year, a decrease of 31.8%.

(d) The decline in net coal imports. In the first four months, the country’s accumulated coal exports totaled 7.16 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%. In April, coal exports reached 1.38 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.2%. Accumulated coal imports totaled 43.48 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.5 million tons, a decrease of 24.2%. In April, coal imports reached 11.1 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.42 million tons, a decrease of 16.9%. The cumulative net import of coal was 36.31 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2 million tons, a decrease of 31.3%.

(e) Increase in market coal prices. Since the end of March, coal prices in the Qinhuangdao port market have begun to rise. As of the end of April, thermal coal prices at the Qinhuangdao Port's 5,500 kcal market were 800-810 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan per ton from the end of March. Major coal-producing provinces and major coal consumption areas such as Ningbo, Shanghai, and Guangzhou also saw market coal prices rise at different levels. At the end of April, the thermal coal “up stop” price in the 5500 kcal market in northern Shanxi was RMB 640-660/ton, which was RMB 20/ton higher than that at the end of March; the price of thermal coal delivered by the Guangzhou Port 5500 kcal market was RMB 920-940/ton. The price rose 45-50 yuan/ton at the end of March.

(6) The coal company's costs and accounts receivable increased significantly. In the first quarter, the main business cost of coal enterprises above designated size was 471.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.9%. At the end of March, the net amount of accounts receivable of coal enterprises above designated size nationwide was 195.38 billion yuan, an increase of 50 billion yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 34.4%. Among them, accounts receivable of large-scale coal enterprises in Shanxi Province increased by 41.7% year-on-year, Inner Mongolia increased by 51.2%, Shandong Province increased by 39%, Guizhou Province increased by 44.4%.

(VII) Investment in fixed assets continued to grow. In the first four months, the coal mining industry completed a fixed asset investment of 71.815 billion yuan, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year, a deceleration of 17.4 percentage points from the same period of last year and 15 percentage points lower than the growth rate of urban fixed asset investment in the same period this year.

(8) The safety situation in coal mines is basically stable. In the first four months, there were 333 accidents and 521 deaths in coal mines across the country, a year-on-year decrease of 103 cases and 305 persons, down by 23.6% and 36.9% respectively. The accident rate of coal mine accidents per million tons was 0.465, a year-on-year decrease of 43.2%; The coal mine's death rate per million tons was 0.112, a decrease of 62.5%; the state-owned local coal mine was 0.469, a drop of 20.1%; the township coal mine was 1.138, a decrease of 40.2%. In the month of April, there were 115 accidents and 187 deaths, a year-on-year decrease of 28 cases and 30 cases, a drop of 19.6% and 14.5% respectively. However, more accidents and deaths occurred in coal mine production in April. In the month, there were more than 10 accidents and 71 deaths, which was an increase of 1 and 16 persons, up by 11.1% and 29.1% respectively.

Second, analysis of coal supply and demand situation

In recent years, the capacity of coal production and supply has been significantly enhanced, which has met the need for rapid growth in demand in the coal market. The overall balance of supply and demand of coal in the country has been presented. The current overall trend of coal supply and demand in the country compared with 2004 shows the following characteristics:

(a) Strong coal demand. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the national coal production increased from 2.35 billion tons to 3.24 billion tons in 2010, an average annual increase of 178 million tons, an average annual increase of 6.6%; since 2009, China has become a net importer of coal, 2010 The net coal import volume reached 146 million tons; the average annual increase in coal consumption was 186 million tons, an average annual increase of 7%. In the first four months of this year, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 12.4%, crude steel production increased by 8.3%, cement production increased by 19.6%, alumina increased by 12.4%, and the output of major energy-consuming products increased significantly, driving coal demand to continue to grow rapidly.

(2) Sufficient coal supply capacity. First, the investment in coal mine construction continues to grow. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the scale of investment in fixed assets for coal mines nationwide was 1.25 trillion yuan. In the first four months of this year, coal investment reached 71.8 billion yuan. It is understood that by the end of 2010, the national coal mine production capacity has reached 3.878 billion tons, and the scope of the coal mines under construction has been delineated to 630 million tons. Second, coal production in the first four months of this year continued to maintain double-digit growth. Third, the railway transportation capacity also maintained double-digit growth. In the first four months, coal traffic accounted for 57.29% of the total freight volume. Fourth, the port’s coal transit volume continues to maintain a growth rate of more than 20%. Fifth, coal inventories are at normal levels, and the total social coal inventories are still maintained at more than 200 million tons; on May 18, the number of days available for coal storage by key national power generation enterprises reached 16 days (an average increase of 7-10 days compared with the same period in 2004). ), The coal deposits at the main port sites are at normal levels in previous years. No matter whether it is the production capacity of coal mines or the railway transportation and port transfer capacity of coal, there has been a fundamental change compared to 2004, and the ability to guarantee coal supply has been significantly enhanced.

It is expected that the coal market will continue to maintain the overall basic balance of supply and demand, structural overcapacity, and regional tightness in the year this year. Affected by multiple factors, the degree of tight coal supply in some regions during the peak season may be affected. Intensified.

Analysis of the reasons for the current tight power supply in some regions is caused by various factors, such as strong demand, severe drought in the region, overhaul of thermal power equipment in some areas, and insufficient hydropower output. Judging from the current output of thermal power equipment, there is room for increase in the number of hours of use of thermal power equipment. According to research conducted by relevant experts on thermal power equipment production in recent years, the average utilization hours of thermal equipment in the first four months was 1,734 hours, averaging 14 hours per day, 68 hours less than 1,802 hours of average utilization hours in the same period of previous years, compared to 2004. The average utilization hours in the same period was 2,029 hours less than 295 hours.

It is worth paying close attention that although the current overall supply and demand of coal in the country is basically balanced, but from the perspective of long-term development trends, coal production continues to grow too fast, resources and environmental constraints continue to strengthen, coal mine safety and security is becoming more and more difficult, coal railway transport The proportion is increasing, and the bottleneck of transportation is still difficult to resolve in the near future. This kind of high-growth development approach that relies on factor input, resource dependence, and extensiveness is unsustainable, and the task of changing the mode of coal production and utilization is even more arduous.

Third, policy recommendations

(1) Increase demand-side management, introduce regional energy consumption policy measures as soon as possible, control the excessively rapid development of high-energy-consuming industries, and restrain excessive growth in coal consumption.

(2) Strengthen self-discipline in the industry, mobilize coal enterprises to scientifically organize production on the premise of ensuring safe production, keep prices basically stable, and maintain the stable operation of the coal market.

(III) Promote the reform of the coal circulation sector, accelerate the development of the modern coal logistics industry, encourage coal companies such as power plants to directly sign strategic alliances or long-term agreements, reduce intermediate links, cancel unreasonable charges, and reduce coal circulation costs.