With the CPI tailing effect gradually weakening, CPI gradually declined in the second half of the year. Although GDP continued to decline, the concern of sharp decline was not great. The dilemma of "controlling inflation and stabilizing growth" is expected to ease. “Hard landing” risk suspension The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently showed that the GDP in the first half of the year was 204.459 billion yuan, which was 9.6% higher than the same period of last year. Among them, the first quarter increased by 9.7% and the second quarter increased by 9.5%. From the ring comparison, domestic GDP increased by 2.2% in the second quarter. The GDP growth rate of 9.6% was basically maintained in a relatively healthy range. At the same time, GDP grew by 2.2% in the second quarter, which was also higher than the 2.1% in the previous quarter and market expectations. This basically dispels the market's concern that the Chinese economy will be severely slowed down and a "hard landing" will occur. Sheng Laiyun, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the main economic indicators are still maintaining steady and rapid growth. Although some indicators have seen some corrections in the second quarter, they are mainly the result of active regulation, which is the market after some stimulus policies are withdrawn. A normal reaction, "From the current and future periods, China's economic growth momentum is still relatively strong, and the risk of rapid economic growth is relatively small." Data show that GDP has stabilized at 9.5%-10 since the third quarter of last year. Between the two, Sheng Laiyun said that this economic growth rate is not low compared to the development goals set by the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". According to reports, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the first half of the year was 25.6%, especially the growth rate of real estate investment was fast; the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 858.33 billion yuan, up 16.8% year-on-year, and maintained a steady growth rate; although the growth rate of import and export declined The magnitude is larger, but the current speed of about 20% is not low. Liu Ligang, director of economic research at Greater Australia in Greater Australia, also said that China's second-quarter GDP was better than market expectations, and that China's economy has once again returned to the normal development track. As the investment, consumption and net export “Troika” maintained a strong upward trend, the Chinese economy showed signs of accelerating again. The slowdown in growth rate is the result of active regulation. The economic growth rate remained stable in the first half of the year, and the trend of lower economic growth rate was basically recognized by the market. However, analysts generally pointed out that this fall is the result of active regulation and is the inevitable result of the economy looking for a balance point. The decline in the growth rate of automobile consumption is one of the important factors that drive down consumption. After the subsidy policy for automobile sales was cancelled in the early stage, some cities also introduced a car purchase restriction policy, which caused the sales growth rate of cars above the designated size to drop sharply year-on-year. According to reports, 45% of the average Chinese residents' expenditure is to buy cars and drive cars. The judgment on the growth rate of automobile consumption basically determines the judgment of the entire residents' consumption. Yang Jianlong, deputy director of the Industry Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that in 2011, it is expected that the highest growth rate of production and sales of automobiles is unlikely to exceed 10%, which means an increase of 1.6 million to 1.7 million. This also makes the consumption growth rate drop directly from the 18% level to 15%. “The fall of the three points makes the consumption growth play a role in the overall economic growth.” In addition, the regulation of real estate also sells related products. Has caused a certain impact. However, the above experts pointed out that "this is a normal reaction after the withdrawal of the stimulus policy. Just like a person running, he can't always sprint with acceleration. He must slow down and run better in the future." Ba Shusong, deputy director of the Center for Financial Studies, said that the growth brought about by the extraordinary stimulus policies in 2009 and 2010 is unsustainable. This year and next year is the exit of the stimulus policy. The two years of finding a balance point is a mild growth period of “soft landing”. The problems brought about by the rapid growth in the first two years of digestion will not cause too much problems in the short run. . The "dilemma" problem in the second half of the year is expected to ease the decline of the economy, but the possibility of a sharp decline is not large, and the CPI will gradually decline in the second half of the year. The "difficult" dilemma of "controlling inflation and stabilizing growth" is expected to ease. In terms of economic growth, Sheng Laiyun pointed out that from the current and future perspectives, China's economic growth momentum is still relatively strong, and the risk of rapid economic growth is relatively small. Sheng Laiyun analysis, from the perspective of investment, this year is the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. The enthusiasm of local investment is relatively high. The growth rate of local investment in the first half of the year was 28.1%, and the growth rate of private investment was 33.8%. The average growth rate of fixed assets in the country indicates that the market's own investment growth rate is relatively fast. In terms of consumption, Sheng Laiyun said that as the income of urban and rural residents continues to increase in the first half of the year, this will increase the strength of consumers; while social security and the consumer environment continue to improve, it will also increase the propensity to consume; The magnitude is larger, but the current speed of around 20% is still not low. In addition, the pace of structural adjustment and development of various regions, including the pace of industrial upgrading, is accelerating, which will continue to give new vitality and impetus to economic growth. "So I feel that the growth of the Chinese economy for a certain period of time is still stable, and I am full of confidence in this situation." Sheng Laiyun said. From the leading indicator PMI, although it has shown a downward trend in recent months, it has been above the threshold of 50 for 27 consecutive months, which also indicates that China's manufacturing industry is still growing. At the same time that the economic growth rate will not drop significantly, the CPI's tail-hanging effect will gradually weaken, and the country will not relax the decision to “stable prices as the primary task of macro-control”. The market generally expects that economic growth will occur in the second half of the year. And the situation of price stability. Wang Jinbin, dean of the School of Economics of Renmin University of China, said that under the influence of “base effect” and “transition shock”, China’s economic growth rate will decline moderately in 2011, and the annual GDP growth is expected to be 9.63%. Taking into account factors such as food, commodity prices, relatively loose liquidity, electricity price reform, "Lewis turning point effect" and other factors, coupled with the hikes, the annual CPI reached 4.7%. "Objectively recognize that China's macro-economy is in an alternating period of anti-crisis stimulus plan and new planning effect, and domestic demand to fill external demand. The policy effect of seeking synergy between growth targets and people's livelihood goals will be gradually enlarged, and the economic cycle effect will be obvious. China's economic growth in 2011 There will be no substantial slowdown." Wang Jinbin said. Experts reminded that the policy “overshoot” economic data and expectations have not dropped significantly, but the real economy, especially the small and medium-sized enterprises, is very difficult. The phenomenon of “macro-thermal micro-cold” has caused the market to worry about “overshoot”. It’s up. Ba Shusong said that China's current economic momentum is further consolidated, and macroeconomic policies are generally appropriate. However, in the future, austerity policies should be prevented from being too long, the rhythm is too frequent, and the intensity is too large, thus triggering the policy of “overshooting” risks. . According to reports, from the past 10 years of regulation and control experience, GDP usually falls back to the CPI three quarters. Taking the inflation cycle of 2006-2008 as an example, GDP fell to the top in the second quarter of 2007, and CPI only peaked in the first quarter of 2008. Ba Shusong said, "At present, GDP has been declining and CPI is still on the rise. Macroeconomic regulation and control should pay special attention to the intensity and rhythm. Otherwise, it may be overkill, especially under the interference of uncertain factors, it is easy to produce an excessively large economic downturn. Tune 'risk.' Peking University professor and famous economist Li Yining also said that two important expectations in the economy are: one is inflation expectations, and the other is the expectation of corporate earnings prospects. Stabilizing people's inflation expectations is effective in controlling inflation. Li Yining stressed that the consequence of over-tightening is that the return of money circulation to the so-called normal level is likely to cause the break of the capital chain and the break of the product supply chain, which may lead to the suspension of production, the layoff of workers, etc., and may also result in individuals. The shrinkage of industrial and commercial households and the decline in farmers’ incomes. "If we understand that the already tight currency flows have not yet returned to normal levels and continue to tighten, at the structural level, the structural inconsistency is inevitable, and the fracture of the product supply chain at the micro level is equally inevitable. Li Yining said.  

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