Lido stimulated a slight rebound in limited gold prices

In the past week, the price of gold has risen slightly, with a slight rebound above 1600 US dollars and repeated intraday volatility. There is no obvious stimulus. The market is dominated by inertial rebound this week.

First, the main factors. The second round of general elections in Greece, which the market has been paying attention to, was held on June 17. During the trading hours of the previous week, major risk assets were oscillated and adjusted, and the market had a strong wait-and-see mood. On the previous trading day of the election, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve all expressed that they would loosen their currency when necessary. On June 15, the Bank of England announced on the same day that it would inject 100 billion pounds to stimulate the economy. The Governor of the Bank of England stated that “the possibility of further easing is increasing”.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that it will provide liquidity when necessary and hints that interest rates may be lowered. Affected by this, European and American stock markets rose sharply on Friday, while gold was slightly consolidating and the market was relatively light.

U.S. economic data showed a noticeable fall. In June, the New York Fed's manufacturing index fell sharply to 2.29, which was far below the 17.09 in May and the previous June market forecast. The US consumer confidence index fell to 74.1 in 12.5.6 months. The lowest in 6 months. Last week, the number of jobless claims for the first time in the United States rose to the highest level in seven weeks, while the May CPI fell by the largest month-on-year in more than three years. In a situation where the economy has declined and the overall risk assets have been significantly adjusted, the market is now expected to increase the easing policy of the Fed. Because of its loose preconditions, the economic downturn and the price fall have all appeared.

Second, the market structure and outlook outlook. Last week, the gold ETF** oscillated slightly and remained stable at high positions. The US COMEX** net long list decreased slightly, indicating that the current gold price rebounded and short-term speculative longs did not increase. On the morning of June 18, 2012, Beijing time, the New Party that supported the rescue agreement won, and the risk of Greece’s exit from the euro zone was reduced. Since then, global risk assets have rebounded sharply, but they have subsequently opened higher in Asia. After the events in Greece were temporarily settled, the real conditions of the global economy and financial markets determined the trend of late-stage risk assets.

The Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting on Thursday. Financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch generally expect the Fed to carry out the third quantitative easing policy. The news that the central bank will continue to release water last Friday stimulated a sharp rebound in the stock market, but the gold price performance was relatively high. Calm. From the short-term trend point of view, in the early period of more than 1600 US dollars to note the only profit. Unless the Fed decides to loosen for the third time, there will be greater pressure on gold prices around $1640-1650.